038  
FXUS63 KMKX 150205 AAA  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
905 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT THE LOWER FOX RIVER IN  
WAUKESHA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER FOX  
RIVER AT NEW MUNSTER. STAY AWAY FROM FLOOD WATERS AND CONTINUE  
TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES IN THESE AREAS.  
 
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FROM AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS  
AND STORMS FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,  
PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF  
STORMS.  
 
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BRIEFLY RETURNS SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
 
- DRYING OUT AND BECOMING LESS HUMID BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA  
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES  
THROUGH THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS TO THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE OR  
PRODUCE VIRGA AT BEST, AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE  
DRY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH FOG TO  
DEVELOP, AND IT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOW LYING AREAS. LOWS IN  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ARE EXPECTED.  
 
SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR  
INTO THE AREA, WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH A LAKE BREEZE  
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
80S, TURNING COOLER NEAR THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WOOD  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:  
 
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: LOW PRESSURE IS APPARENT ALONG THE  
SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT  
EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW, WITH OBSERVATIONS PLACING THE  
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD RAPID CITY, SOUTH  
DAKOTA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE  
HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, PULLING ITS ATTENDANT COLD  
FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. LIFT  
FROM THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN MCV FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE FROM NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOW THE STORMS EVOLVE  
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH TRACKS BOTH TO THE EAST AND  
SOUTHEAST BEING DEPICTED IN CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE. SHOULD A  
MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION VERIFY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY  
QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT & THE  
CONCLUSION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IF A SOUTHEASTERLY STORM  
EVOLUTION IS REALIZED, STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST  
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IN  
THE EVENT STORMS MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, TORRENTIAL  
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT  
FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL RESULT IN  
PATCHES OF HAZE NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CURRENT  
LAKESHORE AIR QUALITY READINGS ARE IN THE GOOD TO MODERATE  
CATEGORIES, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE REST  
OF THE AFTERNOON.  
 
FRIDAY EVENING & NIGHT: AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST PREVAILS,  
PARTICULARLY RELATED TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. EVOLUTION OF THE  
BROADER PATTERN POINTS TO THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO OUR  
NORTH, WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING ON THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT NOTED  
ABOVE. 12Z MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THAT SAID INITIATION WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE FROM  
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOW ACTIVITY EVOLVES POST-  
INITIATION IS LIKELY TO DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE MUCAPE  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE, WITH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SPLIT BETWEEN  
AN EAST-WEST VERSUS NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ALIGNMENT. IF A  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST GRADIENT ORIENTATION BECOMES FAVORED,  
PROPAGATION OF STORMS ALONG A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK (AND INTO  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN) WOULD BECOME A MORE LIKELY  
OUTCOME. HAVE PULLED SLIGHT TO CHANCE (~15-35%) PRECIP  
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL  
OUTCOME. VALUES WILL BE REFINED FURTHER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW  
AS TRENDS CLARIFY. IN THE EVENT STORMS TREND INTO THE AREA,  
1.5"+ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES & DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS WOULD  
TRANSLATE TO AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY HOURLY RAINFALL  
RATES. SAID RATES WOULD BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MORE PROGRESSIVE  
STORM MOTIONS, HOWEVER, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
QUICK 1-2" OF RAINFALL IN ANY DIRECTLY-IMPACTED LOCATIONS. THESE  
TOTALS WOULD RESULT IN MINOR IF ANY HYDRO ISSUES ACROSS THE  
MAJORITY OF THE REGION, BUT COULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT  
IMPACTS IF FALLING OVER PARTS OF THE MILWAUKEE METRO HIT HARD  
LAST WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS WOULD  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES & POSSIBLE  
OUTCOMES, FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED  
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES & MCV'S FROM PRIOR ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH THE SLOW-MOVING  
FRONT TO PROMOTE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT  
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN  
THE MESOSCALE NATURE TO THE FORCING MECHANISMS WORKING WITH THE  
FRONT, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR THE PRECISE TIMING AND  
PLACEMENT OF DAILY STORMS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER-  
CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BEING PLACED AS EACH  
DAY'S FORECAST SETUP CLARIFIES. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES  
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF EACH ROUND OF STORMS, IT  
IS CLEAR THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY  
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME  
FRAME GIVEN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ENTRENCHED ALONG THE FRONT.  
THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS & HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN  
AT LEAST MINOR HYDRO IMPACTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA DURING  
THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD, PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS  
IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY. THE SLOW-MOVING COLD  
FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK, RESULTING IN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL BRING  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 1.5-2.0"  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, IN ADDITION TO A LARGE BOUNDARY-  
PARALLEL COMPONENT TO THE BROADER STEERING FLOW, ILLUSTRATE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS ACTIVITY.  
ANTICIPATE THAT SAID POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN LOCATIONS  
EXPERIENCING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE  
MESOSCALE NATURE OF FORCING MECHANISMS WORKING ALONGSIDE THE  
FRONT, IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT PRECISE LOCATIONS THAT  
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS. HAVE  
REFLECTED DAILY STORM POTENTIAL WITH GENERALLY 30-60% PRECIP  
PROBS AT THIS POINT, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES BEING INTRODUCED  
AS ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS CLARIFY & DAILY CORRIDORS OF STORM  
CHANCES BECOME CLEARER. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY  
IF PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON SATURDAY, WITH HEAT  
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN- ILLINOIS  
STATE LINE.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE  
AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY SHOWERS TO THE WEST SHOULD  
DISSIPATE OR PRODUCE VIRGA AT BEST, AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE  
ATMOSPHERE ARE DRY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, NOT EXPECTING  
AS MUCH FOG TO DEVELOP, AND IT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOW LYING  
AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
 
SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR  
INTO THE AREA, WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST FOR TERMINALS NEAR  
THE LAKE WITH A LAKE BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIURNAL  
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SO KEEP UP WITH  
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.  
 
WOOD  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN  
MANITOBA INTO HUDSON BAY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE  
BOUNDARY SLOWING AND STALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A  
RESULT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD  
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.  
 
SOUTH WINDS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING, THEN SHIFT NORTH  
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND GENERALLY EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE  
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE SHORE, WHERE RECENT  
UPWELLING HAS RESULTED IN COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO  
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ANY FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO  
BE WIDESPREAD NOR DENSE. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL  
GRADUALLY APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN  
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM AS EARLY AS FRIDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
EXPECTED IN ANY ROUND OF ACTIVITY, THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS  
WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST  
FORECAST INFORMATION IF PLANNING TO TAKE TO THE WATER THIS  
WEEKEND.  
 
QUIGLEY/WOOD  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED 905 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
ONE FLOOD WARNING AND ONE FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT IN THE  
MILWAUKEE METRO AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS  
PAST WEEKEND.  
 
THE LOWER FOX RIVER AT WAUKESHA REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT  
THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN STAGE HEIGHT. IT  
MAY REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
THE FOX RIVER AT NEW MUNSTER IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD  
STAGE LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT, AND IS BEING MONITORED  
WITH A FLOOD WATCH.  
 
PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR EACH RIVER SEGMENT  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL EACH CAN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY  
LATER THIS WEEK. CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES IN ALL  
IMPACTED AREAS UNTIL RIVER STAGES RECEDE FURTHER AND FLOOD  
WARNINGS ARE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  
 
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN THIS  
UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND AREA RIVERS (PARTICULARLY IN THE MILWAUKEE  
METRO AREA AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES) WILL BE MONITORED FOR  
POTENTIAL RISES.  
 
SHEPPARD/WOOD  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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