275
FXUS63 KMKX 152015
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH STORM PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- THE RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD LEAD TO RIVER RISES
AGAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO RETURN TO AT
LEAST MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BRIEFLY RETURNS SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- DRYING OUT AND BECOMING LESS HUMID BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
CURRENTLY WATCHING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
IOWA, WITH THE POTENTIAL THIS MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH CURRENT STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. BY EARLY EVENING, FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS ALONG WITH
MODEL CAPE GRADIENT FAVORS A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT ANALYZED SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER EASTERN
IOWA THOUGH IS A BIT HIGHER WITH MORE OF A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT
THAN MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS
COULD FAVOR A CONTINUED MAINLY EASTWARD MOTION INTO EARLY
EVENING. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE AREA SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON WILL BE CLIPPED BY THESE STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN IF
THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS.
AFTER THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS EXITS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPULSES RIDING
THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THESE ROUNDS OF STORMS, WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG WITH THE FORECAST MUCAPE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A TREND TO FOCUS SOME OF
THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EACH ROUND OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
WHICH WILL IMPACT WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS FALL. ANY
HEAVIER ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD LEAD
TO AT LEAST SOME AREAL FLOODING AND RISES IN RIVER LEVELS, IF
NOT A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
THE WEST MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING, PARTICULARLY WEST AND SOUTH OF MADISON. STRONG WINDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY ENTER THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS IN THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, OUTSIDE
OF ANY LOWER CEILING AND VISIBILITES WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EACH AFTERNOON AS A
LAKE BREEZE ROLLS INLAND.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WHILE A LOW
OF 29.4 INCHES MOVES ACROSS HUDSON BAY. THIS LOW WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HIGH WINDS AS THEY ROLL THROUGH.
SOUTH WINDS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING, THEN SHIFT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND GENERALLY EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DDV
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
ONE FLOOD WARNING AND ONE FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT IN THE
MILWAUKEE METRO AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
PAST WEEKEND.
THE LOWER FOX RIVER AT WAUKESHA REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN STAGE HEIGHT. IT
MAY REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE UNTIL MID-DAY SATURDAY.
THE FOX RIVER AT NEW MUNSTER MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND IS BEING MONITORED WITH A FLOOD WATCH.
PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR EACH RIVER SEGMENT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL EACH CAN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATER THIS WEEK. CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES IN ALL
IMPACTED AREAS UNTIL RIVER STAGES RECEDE FURTHER AND FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND AREA RIVERS (PARTICULARLY IN THE MILWAUKEE
METRO AREA AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES) WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL RISES.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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