647
FXUS63 KMKX 160211 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
911 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH STORM PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- THE RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD LEAD TO RIVER RISES
AGAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO RETURN TO AT
LEAST MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BRIEFLY RETURNS SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- DRYING OUT AND BECOMING LESS HUMID BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 911 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST NEAR THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO
AREAS EAST OF LA CROSSE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FOLLOWING THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI
VECTORS.
CAMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TRYING TO GET INITIAL CONDITIONS
CORRECT, SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE MORE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AS IT POINTS MORE
TOWARD WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO BE QUITE CHALLENGING AND THINGS MAY NOT BECOME CLEARER UNTIL
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS BEFORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
WILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
NEEDED. THERE MAY BE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORM APPROACHING THE
FAR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
BE THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS. THIS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VECTORS.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
CURRENTLY WATCHING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
IOWA, WITH THE POTENTIAL THIS MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH CURRENT STORM MOTION VECTORS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. BY EARLY EVENING, FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS ALONG WITH
MODEL CAPE GRADIENT FAVORS A POSSIBLE TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT ANALYZED SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER EASTERN
IOWA THOUGH IS A BIT HIGHER WITH MORE OF A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT
THAN MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THIS
COULD FAVOR A CONTINUED MAINLY EASTWARD MOTION INTO EARLY
EVENING. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE AREA SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON WILL BE CLIPPED BY THESE STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN IF
THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER WILL BE A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS.
AFTER THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS EXITS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND IMPULSES RIDING
THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THESE ROUNDS OF STORMS, WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG WITH THE FORECAST MUCAPE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A TREND TO FOCUS SOME OF
THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXACT TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF EACH ROUND OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WHICH
WILL IMPACT WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS FALL. ANY HEAVIER
ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST SOME AREAL FLOODING AND RISES IN RIVER LEVELS, IF NOT A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 911 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO AREAS EAST OF LA CROSSE. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PERHAPS
AFFECTING THE MADISON AND JANESVILLE TERMINALS.
THERE MAY BE MORE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING TO THE
NORTHWEST THAT MAY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MODEST AT BEST. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CHALLENGING AND THINGS MAY NOT BECOME
CLEARER UNTIL PERHAPS A FEW HOURS BEFORE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH ON SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WITH A LAKE BREEZE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINALS NEAR THE LAKE IN
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 911 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS HUDSON BAY
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERN QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AS THEY ROLL THROUGH.
SOUTH WINDS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING, THEN SHIFT NORTH
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND GENERALLY EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DDV/WOOD
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED 911 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
ONE FLOOD WARNING AND ONE FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT IN THE
MILWAUKEE METRO AREA, IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
PAST WEEKEND.
THE LOWER FOX RIVER AT WAUKESHA REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN STAGE HEIGHT. IT
MAY REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FOX RIVER AT NEW MUNSTER MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND IS BEING MONITORED WITH A FLOOD WATCH.
PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR EACH RIVER SEGMENT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL EACH CAN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATER THIS WEEK. CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES IN ALL
IMPACTED AREAS UNTIL RIVER STAGES RECEDE FURTHER AND FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND AREA RIVERS (PARTICULARLY IN THE MILWAUKEE
METRO AREA AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES) WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL RISES.
DDV/WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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