202
FXUS63 KMKX 171455 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
955 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR WAVES OF 3-6 FEET THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- THE RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD LEAD TO RIVER
RISES AGAIN, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO RETURN
TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
- DRYING OUT AND BECOMING LESS HUMID BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 955 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
THE RAIN ENDED OVER SOUTHWEST WI EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL INTO IOWA AND
ILLINOIS, AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST WI. THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND NOT
POSE A THREAT SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, WE
CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY, NO SHORTWAVE RIPPLE, AND NO LOW
LEVEL JET, WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 IN SOUTHWEST WI, WITH A GRADIENT
TOWARD SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM NORTHEAST WI. WIND
WILL BE BREEZY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 230 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND OVERALL MODELED SITUATION CONTINUED
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE IN LARGE PART BECAUSE OF
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PAIRED WITH LLJ ACTIVITY LINGERING
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND A WEAK EFFECTIVE FRONT DRAPED OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST WI. THIS, IN ADDITION TO SE FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS, WILL YIELD TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SLIGHT
SOUTHERLY PUSH AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLIGHTLY PUSHES SOUTH. BUT
WITH 2+ INCH PWATS VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 2+ INCH/HR RATES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR LIMITED RAINFALL RATES
GIVEN LIMITED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED
ON OBSERVATIONS MOST OF THE CONCERNS WILL BE FOR LAFAYETTE
COUNTY FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME IMPACT TO IOWA AND GREEN
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN AREAS TO WATCH FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS, WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LLJ WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTH AND LIKELY OUT
OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE THINGS AS WELL AS NO OTHER
REAL MEANS OF FORCING AVAILABLE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL
KEEP SUNDAY DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING ON THE DRY SIDE.
HOWEVER, BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AS AN MCS DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY IN NW
IOWA, SW MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE MN/IA BORDER GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO THE
EVENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BEST LLJ FORCING WITH LIMITED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SO WHILE SOME REMNANT ACTIVITY COULD BE
EXPECTED THERE WILL BE DECREASING CHANCES FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS. INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THE DAY MONDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT STARTING AT 8AM THIS MORNING FOR
WAVES FROM 3 TO 6 FEET AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERLY EXPOSED
BEACHES, PIERS, AND/OR BREAKWALLS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO
THESE DANGEROUS CURRENTS.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 230 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY, AS MCS ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
SEEMS PROBABLE FOR MONDAY, THOUGH EXACT DETAILS WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN AND WHERE INITIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT.
STORM POTENTIAL PERSISTS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A MORE WELL-
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL NEED TO WATCH
MONDAY NIGHT CLOSELY FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MID WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO SIGNAL A PATTERN
CHANGE (AT LEAST FOR A TIME), WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 955 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS, SOMETIMES STRATOCU, TODAY DUE TO THE AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND NORTHEAST WINDS REINFORCING A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 230 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS ONTARIO. HOWEVER THE LOW WILL
CONTINUED TO HAVE AN ASSOCIATED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT LARGELY RESTRICTED TO FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY AND NUDGE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE RENEWED FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGHOUT MONDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH. A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH NEARSHORE WAVES UP TO 6 FEET AND
THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES OUT WE
WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE FOR AT
LEAST A PERIOD.
KUROSKI
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED 955 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
THE LOWER FOX RIVER AT WAUKESHA DROPPED BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
THIS MORNING.
THE FOX RIVER AT NEW MUNSTER MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY
THIS WEEK, AND IS BEING MONITORED WITH A FLOOD WATCH.
PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY NEAR EACH RIVER SEGMENT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL EACH CAN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATER THIS WEEK. CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES IN ALL
IMPACTED AREAS UNTIL RIVER STAGES RECEDE FURTHER AND FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, AND AREA RIVERS (PARTICULARLY IN THE MILWAUKEE
METRO AREA AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES) WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL RISES.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM
MONDAY.
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