736
FXUS63 KMKX 190818
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- REMNANT SHOWERS THIS MORNING CLEARING OUT BY MID MORNING.
- OVERALL DRIER AND LESS HUMID THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION EARLY THIS
MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE MID MORNING DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT/MCV. THE MCV CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
BUT WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOWER CLOUDS PUSH
IN AS THE INVERSION TRAPS A LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 900MB. THIS
MAY INCLUDE SOME LEVEL OF PATCHY FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO
SOME DEGREE. INTO THE MORNING HOURS THE INVERSION WILL GRADUALLY
RELEASE THAT MOISTURE WITH A DRIER AIR MASS PUSHING IN. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS.
MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE DAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE PUSHES IN. THIS
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO, PRIMARILY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA AS SOME NEAR SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE
LAKE SHORE AREA SHOWS UP IN CAMS. IN ADDITION THE 850MB
MOISTURE FIELD INCREASES AND WITH SOME WAA FROM THE TROWAL WE
MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT A FEW SHOWERS BUT GENERALLY POPS
WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE (~<20%). THIS WILL FACTOR IN
PRIMARILY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INTO TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING
BRINGING ANOTHER INVERSION OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ABUNDANT RAIN
RECEIVED OVER THE LAST WEEK PLUS IT APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY THAT
FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS IS IN THE CARDS, THOUGH MORE LIKELY
FURTHER WEST WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE PRESENT. IMPACTS TO VSBYS WOULD BE EXPECTED THOUGH DENSE FOG
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, CAMS HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY
CONSISTENT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ALONG THE LAKE IN WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A BIT OF A LAKE EFFECT BAND LOOK. LAKE TO 850MB TEMP
DIFFERENCES FOR THE PERIOD ARE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES WHICH IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE AND MAKES THIS SOLUTION FEASIBLE. THERE IS
SUPPORT FROM THE SURFACE WINDS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
LAND WHILE MODEST TO EVEN BREEZY FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
LAKE SETTING UP SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS. SOME MODELS
EVEN HINT AT A BACKDOOR FRONT TYPE FEATURE ROLLING DOWN THE
LAKE. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FEATURE
THAT MAY HELP WITH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME MINOR WAA
SHOWING UP IN SOME LARGER SCALE MODELS. THIS MAY ACTUALLY EVEN
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE NEARSHORE AREA. SOME OF
THE LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE CLOUD DEPTH LIKELY BEING LIMITED
BY AN INVERSION ALOFT. OVERALL, CAMS SHOW MOST OF THE ONSHORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WARMING AND
DRYING AIR MASS GRADUALLY ENDING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS NOW IN EFFECT 7AM WEDNESDAY TO 4AM
THURSDAY FOR BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CAUSING WAVES FROM 3-5 FEET.
THIS WILL IMPACT MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA BEACHES. EXPECT
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH FACING
BEACHES, AREAS NEAR PIERS AND/OR BREAKWALLS WHICH WILL BE MOST
VULNERABLE TO THESE DANGEROUS CURRENTS.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
WEATHER APPEARS LARGELY QUIET FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN
COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. HOWEVER, FRIDAY NIGHT
MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE PUSH THROUGH. RIGHT
NOW, THE UPPER LEVELS AND CORRESPOND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WAA LINE UP FAIRLY WELL THUS MAKING THIS A BIT MORE LIKELY
TO BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE REGION BUT IT LOOKS QUICK MOVING AND
SHORT-LIVED. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN MODELS WE COULD EXPECT
SOME STORMS WITH THIS BUT GIVEN THE TIMING SEVERE RISK WOULD
APPEAR LOW.
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL GET SHOVED
SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA PIVOTS EAST SWINGING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY THE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SEEM LIMITED IN LARGE PART DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. IF SOME MOISTURE CAN ENTER THIS
SITUATION THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AS IT SWINGS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO REALLY LIMIT THE
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO THE PRIMARY
CHANCES WOULD APPEAR MORE RESTRICTED TO EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
WI UNLESS SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS
ALOFT.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENVELOP SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING AS
THE SYSTEM FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHES OUT. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING WITH SOME
IMPACTS TO VSBYS WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. FOG IS
LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND PATCHY (MVFR) BUT
SOME FURTHER REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. BY MID MORNING THIS SHOULD
LARGELY CLEAR UP WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FURTHER EASTER TODAY BUT OTHER
WISE REMAINING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. INTO TONIGHT WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. IN ADDITION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING SOME LOW CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR
THE SHORELINE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHOWERS PUSHING INLAND
FROM OVER THE LAKE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THAT WILL
PLAY OUT WITH RESPECT TO AVIATION IMPACTS BUT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IF NOT EXPECTED.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES WILL CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES SITTING OVER
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY, THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH GLIDES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
LATER IN THE WEEK.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING HIGHER WAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN
3 TIERS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY TO 9Z
THURSDAY.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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