569
FXUS63 KMKX 201938
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
238 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-90.
- ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS SOUTH
OF MILWAUKEE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER, LESS HUMID, AND BREEZY FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
WIDESPREAD LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION,
AS WE REMAIN SITUATED IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A FAIR NUMBER OF THESE CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO FOG
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTEST ACROSS THIS AREA AS A SURFACE RIDGE NOSES SOUTH, AND
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE, THE INGREDIENTS WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE FOR FOG. SOME
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WEST OF I-90
BY MORNING, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS GOING INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A POTENTIAL ADVISORY.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO TODAY, THOUGH WITH A
BIT LESS IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER
WITH UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 80. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN POPS TO
AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. SOME THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, BUT WITH THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, NOT SEEING MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
SOME RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN. FOR NOW, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL BE JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CLOUD DEPTH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM THE STRATOCU DECK. DIURNAL CU WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON MONDAY, BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TOO MEAGER FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AFTER REACHING THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY, HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS THEN BECOMING VFR THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. FOG WILL THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MADISON AND JANESVILLE. AT THIS TIME,
TERMINALS FARTHER TO THE EAST LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
SOME PATCHY FOG CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE UP THROUGH TOMORROW, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND
EXPANDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT, SLOWLY EASING INTO THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. WAVES IN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE AROUND 4 FEET AT TIMES, AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM PORT
WASHINGTON SOUTHWARD.
WINDS THEN TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LAKE ON
SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...7 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
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