164
FXUS63 KMKX 041415
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS LIKELY (~60-80% CHANCES) THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.
- WIDESPREAD GALES EXPECTED BOTH IN NEARSHORE ZONES AND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 915 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
IN BY THE EVENING WITH A STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH IT
BRINGING STRONG WAA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
COMPACT, QUICK- MOVING, BUT STRONG WITH THE PRESSURE CENTER
AROUND 993MB AS IT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY (60-80%) RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BUT KEEPING LARGELY JUST CHANCES
FROM I-94 AND SOUTH. MOST MAY NOT EVEN REALIZE IT RAINED BECAUSE
IT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN LARGE PART AND THE QUICK MOVING
NATURE OF IT WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FAIRLY LOW. THERE MAY BE
A LINGERING POST-FRONTAL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME TROWAL TYPE WAA ALOFT
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT FOR THE MOST PART FRIDAY SHOULD
BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT BREEZY WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
LINGERING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST,
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN, WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE SASKATECHEWAN-NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH & SURFACE LOW TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE TROUGH & SURFACE LOW WILL TURN EAST TONIGHT, CROSSING CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE AND LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BOTH INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FEATURES, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOCUSING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EAST INTO CANADA ON FRIDAY, WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT
BY LATE MORNING. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
REST OF OVERNIGHT: WILL BE WATCHING FOR A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG,
PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS
WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE. WINDS HAVE MANAGED TO DECOUPLE IN SOME
OF THESE LOCATIONS GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND RELAXING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OR
IMPACTFUL ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
TONIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
THE BEST (> 60% PROBABILITIES) PRECIP POTENTIAL FOCUSING TO THE
NORTH OF I-94 AND US-18. ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LACK OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT HOURLY RAINFALL RATES, WITH A MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN INTENSITY EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL THUS BE
LIGHT, WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94/US-18 IN LINE FOR ~0.1-0.25" OF
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTH, WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED & HIT-MISS IN
NATURE. INCREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE NEAR
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE, WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES EXPECTED FROM
PORT WASHINGTON AND POINTS NORTH. A MODERATE SWIMMING RISK IS THUS
FORECAST BETWEEN ~1-7 AM AT OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES.
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF HEADING LAKESIDE.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SATURDAY THEN CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE ROUGHLY OVERHEAD OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY MIDWEEK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PULLS EAST,
HIGHS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE 70S WITH TEMPS INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 40S INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE RISING SLIGHTLY DAY BY DAY. A VERY QUIET AND PLEASANT
WEEK FOR THOSE OF US LOOKING FORWARD TO THE COOLER AUTUMN LIKE
TEMPS.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 915 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
RAIN CHANCES THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-94. MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED
FOR AT LEAST PARTS IF NOT MOST OF SOUTHERN WI FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD. GIVEN STRONG WINDS ALOFT, WE EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LLWS AROUND 45-50KTS AT 2KFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
1012 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TONIGHT, WHEN 998
MB LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
THE OPEN WATERS, WHERE A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT BETWEEN 1 AM
AND 10 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE GALE WARNING TIME FRAME AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES AND MOVES EAST OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PRIOR
TO SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AS 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
RAIN IS LIKELY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
WATERSPOUTS, PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMALLER CHANCES FOR MORE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE, WITH
WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL WANING BY SUNSET.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN NEARSHORE ZONES THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
GUSTS WILL CLIMB ABOVE GALE THRESHOLDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A GALE WARNING GOING INTO EFFECT AT 1 AM CDT
IN ALL NEARSHORE ZONES. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY
AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WHILE GALES ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FOLLOW-
UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS GALES
BEGIN TO TAPER IN NEARSHORE ZONES. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FRIDAY EVENING.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...1 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.
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