853
FXUS63 KMKX 041924
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
224 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS LIKELY (60-80% CHANCES) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
- WIDESPREAD GALES EXPECTED BOTH IN NEARSHORE ZONES AND OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INTRODUCED SOME PERIODS OF
STORMS/SHOWER CHANCES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 220 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IS
EXPECTED BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM SWINGING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION
WILL START TO BRING IN SOME MORE WIDESPREAD MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND A STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH IT BRINGING STRONG
WAA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY COMPACT, QUICK-
MOVING, BUT STRONG WITH THE PRESSURE CENTER AROUND 992MB AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIKELY (60-80%) RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA BUT KEEPING LARGELY JUST CHANCES FROM I-94 AND
SOUTH.
MOST MAY NOT EVEN REALIZE IT RAINED BECAUSE IT WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT IN LARGE PART AND THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF IT (IN
AND OUT IN JUST A COUPLE HOURS) WILL KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS
FAIRLY LOW. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING POST- FRONTAL CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME TROWAL TYPE WAA ALOFT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT FOR
THE MOST PART FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT BREEZY WINDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT LINGERING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 220 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY,
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHING OUT TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY. THIS IS ALL WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LARGELY
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH ALOFT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 60S THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AS LARGE
SCALE RIDGING PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE WEST. WE WILL THEN SLOWLY
WARM BACK UP OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
AND THERE IS CERTAINLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO
INTRODUCE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND THEN INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SQUEEZING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE
WEST SOMEWHAT. AT THIS POINT THE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A
GLANCING BLOW BUT MAY CARRY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IT THAT MAY
BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER,
AS THE RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL NOT COMPLETELY TAKE OUT OUR PRECIP CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO RIDE THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, INEVITABLY FLATTENING OUT THE
UPPER RIDGE.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 220 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH MIDLEVEL SCT/BKN CIGS AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-94. MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS IF NOT MOST OF SOUTHERN WI FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD.
GIVEN STRONG WINDS ALOFT, WE EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLWS
AROUND 45-50KTS AT 2KFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 220 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING AND PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TONIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF THE OPEN WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS, WHERE A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 1 AM AND 10 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE
GALE WARNING TIME FRAME AS THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES AND MOVES
EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WEAKEN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOLLOWING THE GALE
WARNING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION ITS WORTH MENTIONING THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE LEAD UP TO THE GALE
WARNING TONIGHT.
RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE LAKE. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
FEW WATERSPOUTS, PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SMALLER CHANCES
FOR MORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE, WITH WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL DECREASING BY THE EVENING.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...1 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.
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