864
FXUS63 KMKX 050843
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD GALES OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FOR MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DIGGING BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW THAT SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA,
ONE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AT TIMES, WHICH MAY BRING
SOME SPRINKLES.
THE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING A MORE FOCUSED PERIOD OF UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND PERHAPS MORE BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW TO HELP BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO ADD MORE SHOWER CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE AREA.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LINGER TODAY, WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT, AS THE STRONG LOW MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TODAY AROUND 60 DEGREES AND IN THE LOWER 60S
ON SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUE
EAST AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDLE TO LATER NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
SHOW A TROUGH DESCENDING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH, THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVERHEAD LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND
STAGNATE A BIT.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW, ITS
LIKELY THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, BUT
A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TIMING
IS VERY BROAD HERE, WITH LOW CHANCE POPS (15 TO 30 PERCENT) AS
THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON WHEN THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
MOVE THROUGH, AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE COULD BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
THIS BASICALLY BOILS DOWN TO THE FACT THAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
NOT ONLY ON THE TIMING, BUT ALL THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW, WHICH IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE. ANOTHER THING
WORTH NOTING IS ONCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE MONDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL
SLIGHTLY RISE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S, WHICH WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS FOR TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT, AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. MODEST WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
SOME SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR TODAY, AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES DROPPING TO 2000 TO 2500 FEET
AGL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3500 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY THIS
EVENING NORTHWEST OF MADISON. THERE MAY BE MORE SHOWER CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH MORE BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3500 FEET AGL.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.3 INCHES WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR JAMES BAY TODAY. WIDESPREAD SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
AND OPEN WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS, WHERE A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER LATER THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT, AS LOW SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES INTO THIS
EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, FOR THE GUSTY WEST WINDS.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
30.3 INCHES PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW WATERSPOUTS MAY OCCUR
IN THIS AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
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