769
FXUS63 KMKX 061425
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM BACK UP, APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY TOWARDS CENTRAL WI.
UPDATE
ISSUED 925 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. PERIODS OF LOW TO MID
ALTITUDE STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLOWLY STEEPENING, FORMING BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT TERM
SECTION OF THIS AFD, THESE CUMULUS MAY EVOLVE INTO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND APPEARS THAT IT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE DRIVEN
BY MODEST MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OR IN COMBINATION
WITH SOME DIFFERENTIAL CVA FROM A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE, WITH SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WITH A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE DIFFERENTIAL CVA FROM THIS
FEATURE SHOULD COMBINE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITH PEAK HEATING
TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME
SPRINKLES AS WELL MIXED IN, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS MIXING DOWN
WITH SOME SHOWERS WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GRADIENT
WINDS WILL BE WEST NORTHWEST AND BRISK TODAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A COLD AIR FUNNEL OR TWO TO OCCUR
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES AND THE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH PEAK HEATING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO WILL NOT PLAY IT UP IN
MESSAGING FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT BY LATER TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 60S.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
ZONAL JET STREAM FLOW, SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SRN WI FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE MON NT-
TUE NT. A CANADIAN COLD FRONT, DRIVEN SOUTH BY LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SRN HUDSON BAY AND ONTARIO, WILL THEN
PASS LATE TUE NT-WED. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO SRN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BY FRI, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SRN
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. ENELY WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SRN WI THU-FRI, BUT WITH STILL
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 925 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AROUND 7,000 FT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN (AND
ANOTHER AROUND 13,000 FT TOWARDS CENTRAL WI) GRADUALLY MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO 6,000 FT CUMULUS
CLOUDS TOWARDS MID-DAY. TOWARDS CENTRAL WISCONSIN (KFLD, KSBM)
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATER THIS MORNING WHERE SAID CUMULUS
ESTABLISH BROKEN COVERAGE AT A LOWER ALTITUDE (PERHAPS 2,500 OR
3,000 FT MVFR) BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE EXPECTED 6,000
FT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CEILINGS LIKELY
TO PERSIST. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
A FEW 15 TO 18 KT GUSTS.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
BRIEFLY ELEVATED WIND GUSTS. PROB30 GROUPS FOR SUCH SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE TAFS. DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REDEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.3 INCHES NEAR JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY,
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE LAKE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS NORTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW
WATERSPOUTS MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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