268
FXUS63 KMKX 062008
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM BACK UP, APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- 30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY TOWARDS CENTRAL WI. LOWER CHANCES
TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN WI.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING A PATCH OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWESTERN WI,
RIDING TOWARDS US ON THE NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW.
THOUGH THIS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REACH US THIS
EVENING, IT IS UNLIKELY TO CONTINUE PRODUCING THUNDER (THOUGH A
FEW RUMBLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF MADISON).
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, CLOUDS
RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT. DECELERATING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS LONE ROCK WI. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE IN LOW LYING MARSHY AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT, DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THAT'S IT.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
NEARLY CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATION FOG, MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING MARSHY AREAS. IF APPLICABLE, THIS WOULD CLEAR OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH (SW TO NE ORIENTED) IS EXPECTED TO SAG
INTO CENTRAL WI MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS. WE'VE ALLOWED 30%
CHANCES TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARDS CENTRAL WI, THOUGH
CHANCES TAPER TOWARDS 15% INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN WI (FURTHER FROM
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY).
LOWER PREDICTABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATE HALF OF THE
WEEK, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING RIGHT ALONG OR JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN THE JET GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER, THOUGH A WEAK RIDGE-RIDING
SYSTEM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
6,000 FT AGL BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS LINGER, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF
MADISON. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO TONIGHT,
THOUGH ANY SHOWERS COULD DELIVER A BRIEF RETURN OF GUSTY
CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND RAPIDLY DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY (MAINLY APPLICABLE TO JUST
KLNR AIRPORT) MAY OBSERVE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, ERODING RAPIDLY AFTER THE SUN RISES.
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOME
SCATTERED 5,000 FT AGL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ERODING INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE, BECOMING CALM SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE OVER
THE LAKE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW WATERSPOUTS MAY
OCCUR IN THIS AREA.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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