872
FXUS63 KMKX 081534
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES LATER THIS WEEK.
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING RISING WAVES TO LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES, WITH A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR
HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS IN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT OZAUKEE COUNTY BEACHES DURING THIS TIME.
- THERE ARE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THERE IS A DRIER TREND IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1034 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WHILE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS
SLOWLY APPROACH SRN WI LATE TUE. THE NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER SW WI THIS MORNING IS
ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, THUS THE CLOUDS MAY BECOME
MORE SCATTERED. HIGH TEMPS NEAR 70F IS STILL FORECAST WHILE A
LAKE BREEZE WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE JUST A BIT
INLAND. LGT SLY WINDS TNT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPS, FOLLOWED BY HIGH TEMPS RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S FOR TUE.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
SOME DENSE FOG WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY, AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE MAY BE SOME GROUND FOG
ELSEWHERE IN LOW LYING AREAS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY SEE
MORE FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AS WELL,
THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SCATTERED DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING SHOULD HELP HIGHS RISE TO AROUND
70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BRING LOWS INTO THE LOWER 50S
TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS
TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME
GUSTINESS AT TIMES.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL (ABOUT 15
TO 30 PERCENT) MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, TRENDS CONTINUE
TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY, EXPECTING HIGH AMPLITUDE
BUT NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, KEEPING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITHIN A WARM PATTERN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S, REACHING
THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL RIDGE-RIDING
SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1034 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCT-BKN050-070 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WAVES
WILL BUILD IN THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON FROM EARLY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING, FOR GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET.
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FOR FRIDAY.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052...7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY.
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