956
FXUS63 KMKX 091604
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1104 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES LATER THIS WEEK.
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED WAVES TO
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES, WITH A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN
EFFECT FOR HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS IN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT OZAUKEE COUNTY BEACHES DURING THIS TIME.
- THERE ARE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY IN LATER
FORECASTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
WATCHING THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AS IT CONTINUES
TO SLOW MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERTIME. THERE ARE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WISOCNSIN AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS THAT FILL
IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS A 500 MB VORT MAX LIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONFIDENCE ON ANY SHOWERS MAKING INTO CWA IS
LOW, BUT NON ZERO. THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO BE FOR AREAS WEST AND NORTH.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WHERE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY COMBINED WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WITH MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP HIGHS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.
THE LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME DECENT MOISTURE ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL. GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE BELOW THAT LEVEL, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWERS
TO REACH THE SURFACE. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE
DIFFERENTIAL CVA IS WEAK.
CAMS STILL HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN TONIGHT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING IN THE FORECAST IN THIS AREA.
CONFIDENCE ON SEEING A THUNDERSTORM IS LOW, AS THERE IS LIMITED
IF ANY INSTABILITY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ARE FORECAST TONIGHT,
AS WINDS WEAKEN.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS TIME, KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH
THE DRY AIR BELOW 7000 FEET IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT MAY NEED
SOME 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS. SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE TO HELP TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 70S
MOST PLACES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK, WITH WARMING CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALSO DEVELOPS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY UNDER DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH A DECENT
SIGNAL THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL HIT 80 DEGREES MOST PLACES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS MONTH BY FRIDAY.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
WELL NORTH, THE CANADIAN SOLUTION MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST US, AND THE ECMWF DROPS THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND STALLS IT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SPREAD IS NOTED IN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES AS WELL, WITH THE
ECMWF SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A LOT MORE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH PRECIP AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS THUS ON THE LOWER END
FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THE STATE TODAY AND
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
AROUND 4 TO 6 KFT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (15-30%) FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SMALL
CHANCES ARE MAINLY GOING TO BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
MADISON(MSN).
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LAKE BREEZE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO EASTERLY THEN
EAST-NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TODAY, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF THE WAVE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING, FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED WAVES.
THE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY, AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page