079
FXUS63 KMKX 100333 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES LATER THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
STILL EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
MADISON TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 50S MOST PLACES. NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD HEADING INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN THERE WILL BE A 500 MB VORT MAX THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING POSES THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE CHANCES ARE AROUND 10-20
PERCENT AND ARE HIGHEST FOR AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON.
THE CHANCES ARE BEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DUE TO THE BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LLJ BLEEDING EAST AND CREATING
SOME MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. NOW THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST TO OUR NORTH, SO NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO HELP IN THE LACK OF THUNDERSTORMS
CATEGORY.
CAMS KEEP SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS LATCHING ONTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT AND THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. SOUNDINGS DO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS WHICH BEGS THE QUESTIONS OF IF WE WILL GET ANY RAIN AT
ALL. IF SHOWERS DO SHOW UP ON RADAR, WILL RAIN MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND OR WILL IT BE VIRGA? GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR,
KEPT RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW AROUND 5-15% FOR AREAS WEST OF
MADISON.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN,
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH A CHANCE FOR THE LOW 80S TO
RETURN FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED, HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME PATTERNS STARTING TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT.
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THE RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE AND SLOWLY BE ERODED BY TWO SEPARATE TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP BOLSTER THE RIDGE.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND DOWN FROM CANADA NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY. WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN SQUEEZED BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS. UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON THE TRACK, BUT BASED ON
THIS ITS LIKELY THAT WE COULD SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL PVA AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TWO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE THEN
REALLY STRUGGLES TO DECIDE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT WHICH IS WHY
THERE ARE LOW CHANCE POPS (15-20%) SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT THIS WEEKEND, BUT WE MAY
HAVE TO DODGE SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND THESE TIMELINES SHOULD DECREASE AND
CERTAINTY WILL INCREASE.
THE UNCERTAINTY RINGS TRUE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS WELL.
STUCK TO THE AVERAGE OF MODEL GUIDANCE TO NOT PULL IN THE
OUTLIERS OF THE COLDER OR HOTTER TEMPS.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
MADISON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE CHANCE PUSHING EAST ON
WEDNESDAY, LARGELY STAYING NORTH OF I-94. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR DUE TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BECOMING EASTERLY BY TOMORROW EVENING.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE LAKE TODAY AND THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
HAVE ENDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY, AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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