731
FXUS63 KMKX 120214
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
914 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED 915 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS (WITH DEWPOINTS OF 60-63 DEGREES)
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS DRIFTING INTO FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN ON
LIGHT (5 MPH) NORTHEAST WINDS, ENCOUNTERING LAND AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE HILLS WHICH ARE BEGINNING TO COOL
UNDER THE MOSTLY-CLEAR NIGHT SKY (CURRENTLY AT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 60). SO FAR, THE MAIN
MANIFESTATION OF THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS BEEN AN ARC OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS EXTENDING INTO MILWAUKEE, EASTERN WAUKESHA,
SOUTHERN OZAUKEE, AND EASTERN RACINE COUNTIES, WHICH IS
GRADUALLY FANNING OUT TOWARDS BURLINGTON. THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY
ACTUALLY SERVE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF FOG IN MILWAUKEE, BUT AREAS
MORE EXPOSED TO THE NIGHT SKY (SHEBOYGAN COUNTY, MAINLY) HAVE
ALREADY REPORTED VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 3/4 SM. AS SUCH, A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERAL EASTERN WISCONSIN
COUNTIES, AND MAY BE EXPANDED AS NEEDED.
IN THE EVENT YOU ENCOUNTER LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-43 CORRIDOR),
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND
MAINTAIN SEPARATION FROM THE VEHICLES IN FRONT OF YOU.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN, WE WILL REMAIN IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DENSE FOG TONIGHT. IF WE GO BY TRENDS LAST NIGHT, THE FIRST
SIGNS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSEST TO THE LAKESHORE AND THEN
EXPAND INLAND. MODELS ARE POINTING TO THE AREA BETWEEN MANITOWOC
AND SHEBOYGAN FOR EARLY DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, WITH
EXPANSION SOUTH AND WEST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. IF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPS HERE, IT WILL IMPACT VISIBILITY ALONG I-43.
FOG AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SO WARMING MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW.
HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO
KICK IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET. INLAND AREAS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S UNDER GENERAL
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE WILL REMAIN IN THE
70S.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL PRIMARILY BE POINTING
INTO CENTRAL MN, WITH THE 850MB TEMP GRADIENT CURVING FROM THE
TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN DELLS AND LAKE GENEVA.
MEANWHILE, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND ALSO A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTHEAST
MN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEATHER
SCENARIOS WITH THIS SETUP AND MODELS ARE DIVIDED. ONE CAMP
SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN
MN THAT RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN WI. ANOTHER CAMP SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST MN (LATER) AND RIDES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI SAT MORNING. SEVERAL CAMPS SUGGEST A SOLUTION IN
BETWEEN. THEREFORE, STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON DESCRIBES THE SITUATION AT
THIS TIME. WE WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THINGS
ARE GOING TO PROGRESS TOMORROW NIGHT UNTIL THE 12Z MESO MODELS
COME IN TOMORROW MORNING.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED
TO EXIT SOUTHEAST WI BY NOON SATURDAY. WE WILL BE WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND HAVE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LAKE BREEZE ALONG LAKESHORE,
SO HIGHS THERE MAY NOT CRACK 80. INLAND AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER-MID 60S, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A SIMILAR STORY, BUT WITH THE
RIDGE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, SO RIGHT OVER WI, IT WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
A ROBUST, OCCLUDING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIP
(SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) FROM THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT,
ALONG WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES, SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THEREFORE, WE (SRN WI) SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED WITHIN
THE RIDGE. OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR MON-WED ARE IN THE UPPER 80S,
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE LAKESHORE. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND IT WILL FEEL LIKE LATE JULY AGAIN.
THIS RIDGING PATTERN MAY HOLD FOR QUITE A WHILE, POSSIBLY ALL
THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 915 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
AREAS OF FOG AND IFR / LIFR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP IN EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WORSEN AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
LINGERING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR INLAND TERMINALS, BUT AGAIN,
TERMINALS ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN ARE LIKELY TO OBSERVE THE
THICKEST FOG AND LOW STRATUS, WITH IFR / LIFR LOOKING LIKELY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY, WITH
CEILINGS AND FOG GRADUALLY LIFTING, CLEARING OUT AROUND 9 OR 10
AM CDT AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY FOR THE WEST HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.2 INCHES DEVELOPS IN QUEBEC.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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