034
FXUS63 KMKX 120845
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DENSE FOG AT TIMES IN EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
IF ENOUGH DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER A WIDE ENOUGH AREA TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEB CAMERAS
AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS INTO THIS MORNING AND SEE IF AN
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDLE MORNING, WITH THE LOW STRATUS
GRADUALLY RISING AND SCATTERING OUT PERHAPS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE WARM
INLAND, WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED. COOLER 70S ARE
ANTICIPATED CLOSER THE LAKE.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT, LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RETREATING BACK
TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
MAY RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND CLIP THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND FOCUSED WARM AIR
ADVECTION HELPING TO PROVIDE MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.
FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND, AND 70S TO AROUND 80 FURTHER
EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD BRING
NORTHEAST WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MILD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ARE EXPECTED.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRIMARILY DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THANKS IN PART TO A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE NEUTRALLY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS PARKED DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE MAY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK, BUT REMAINS PREVALENT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY CANADA
REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, AIDING IN
THE MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER, AND ALLOWING ONLY A FEW WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGHS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR OUR CWA, RAIN CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY 15 PERCENT OR LESS
SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY
GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTH OVER TIME, AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
LIGHT LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WOULD
SUFFICE FOR AN AIRMASS THUNDERSTORM OR TWO (ESPECIALLY FURTHER
INLAND), BUT WITHOUT ANY UPPER AIR SUPPORT TO TRIGGER THEM,
MODELS RESOLVE ONLY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION, IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER (30 PERCENT)
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
OUR MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION MAY COOL CITIES ALONG THE SHORELINE,
HOLDING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DENSE FOG AT TIMES IN EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. CEILINGS OF 300 TO 500 FEET AGL
WITH THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS,
BEFORE MIXING UPWARDS TO ABOVE 3500 FEET AGL AND BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG WILL VARY WIDELY, WITH VISIBILITY VALUES JUMPING AROUND
BETWEEN 1/2 MILE AND 5 MILES AT MANY LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE 1/4
MILE VISIBILITY WITH DENSE FOG AT TIMES IN SOME AREAS, THOUGH
NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THIS MAY GET. SOUTH WINDS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LAKE BREEZE.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AT AREA TERMINALS, PERHAPS
LINGERING AT KENOSHA INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCAL VISIBILITY
AND CEILING REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY TOWARD THE WESTERN SHORE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS WELL, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3
INCHES DEVELOPS IN QUEBEC.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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