107
FXUS63 KMKX 121506 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE DENSE FOG DISSIPATED QUICKLY FOR MOST AREAS, BUT WILL
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES.
- CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1006 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THE FOG IS LINGERING LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS OVER THE LAKE.
THEREFORE, WE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FOR
THOSE AREAS.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND THEN
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY GOES ON (EXCEPT WHERE THERE IS A LAKE
BREEZE), AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR
AREAS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF MADISON AS EARLY AS 10 PM,
WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE MESO
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SO WATCH FOR FORECAST
UPDATES TO REFLECT THAT CONFIDENCE.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DENSE FOG AT TIMES IN EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
IF ENOUGH DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER A WIDE ENOUGH AREA TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEB CAMERAS
AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS INTO THIS MORNING AND SEE IF AN
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDLE MORNING, WITH THE LOW STRATUS
GRADUALLY RISING AND SCATTERING OUT PERHAPS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE WARM
INLAND, WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED. COOLER 70S ARE
ANTICIPATED CLOSER THE LAKE.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT, LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE RETREATING BACK
TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
MAY RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND CLIP THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND FOCUSED WARM AIR
ADVECTION HELPING TO PROVIDE MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.
FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WELL INLAND, AND 70S TO AROUND 80 FURTHER
EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD BRING
NORTHEAST WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MILD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ARE EXPECTED.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRIMARILY DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THANKS IN PART TO A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE NEUTRALLY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS PARKED DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE MAY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK, BUT REMAINS PREVALENT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY CANADA
REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, AIDING IN
THE MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER, AND ALLOWING ONLY A FEW WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGHS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR OUR CWA, RAIN CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY 15 PERCENT OR LESS
SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY
GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTH OVER TIME, AND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
LIGHT LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WOULD
SUFFICE FOR AN AIRMASS THUNDERSTORM OR TWO (ESPECIALLY FURTHER
INLAND), BUT WITHOUT ANY UPPER AIR SUPPORT TO TRIGGER THEM,
MODELS RESOLVE ONLY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION, IF ANYTHING AT ALL.
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER (30 PERCENT)
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
OUR MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION MAY COOL CITIES ALONG THE SHORELINE,
HOLDING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1006 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THE DENSE FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI
EXCEPT IN EASTERN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES. THAT FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 18Z. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF MADISON AS EARLY AS 10 PM,
WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1006 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS WELL, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3
INCHES DEVELOPS IN QUEBEC.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ052-WIZ060 UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-
LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671 UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
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