128
FXUS63 KMKX 130931
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
431 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MARINE DENSE FOG IS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
- CHANCES (50 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN,
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
DEEP WARM MOIST ADVECTION FROM 925 TO 700MB FOLLOWING THE NOSE
OF A LLJ, HAS DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL WI. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE,
SHIFTING TOWARD THE LAKESHORE AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. STORMS
HAVE ORIENTED IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LINE, LEADING TO
TRAINING NEAR THE DELLS. TRAINING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAA AND SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES SO SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE DELLS, AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALONG WITH THE
RAIN, ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TODAY, EXITING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP A RIDGE PARKED IN PLACE
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH THE BULK OF ANY RAIN CHANCES SHUNTED
OFF TO OUR WEST. LOWS IN THE 60S AND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. CLOSER TO THE LAKE FRONT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPRECIABLY COOLER (70S TO LOW 80S).
BY MIDWEEK, THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
PEELING OFF A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY, THOUGH STILL AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
VARIOUS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES, BUT NO ONE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT AT THIS
POINT. A COLD FRONT ENTERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, SIGNALING AN
UNSETTLED END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND AND EVEN PERHAPS JUST BELOW
AVERAGE.
GAGAN
AVIATION
ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN WI THIS
MORNING CAUSING A MIXTURE OF IFR, MVFR, AND VFR OVER THE REGION.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND SOUTHEASTERLY, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FROM
ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS MORNING.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 411 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1 NM IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MID SATURDAY
MORNING, THOUGH MORNING RAIN MAY INCREASE VISIBILITY IN SOME
AREAS.
OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE POST-DAWN
HOURS THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSS
WI AND LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS (OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE).
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870 UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.
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