123
FXUS63 KMKX 131458
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
958 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- AREAS OF FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI IS FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 958 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM, MOIST ADVECTION HAS
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND CAPPING ALOFT TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON BUT OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. MORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE TNT, BUT WOULD LIKELY BE MOST CONCENTRATED FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WI AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON ELY
WINDS WILL MOVE INTO ERN WI. THE NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
THE WEST WILL THEN SHIFT OVER WI AND LAKE MI FOR TOMORROW INTO
MONDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
DEEP WARM MOIST ADVECTION FROM 925 TO 700MB FOLLOWING THE NOSE
OF A LLJ, HAS DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL WI. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE,
SHIFTING TOWARD THE LAKESHORE AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. STORMS
HAVE ORIENTED IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LINE, LEADING TO
TRAINING NEAR THE DELLS. TRAINING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAA AND SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES SO SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE DELLS, AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALONG WITH THE
RAIN, ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TODAY, EXITING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 427 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP A RIDGE PARKED IN PLACE
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH THE BULK OF ANY RAIN CHANCES SHUNTED
OFF TO OUR WEST. LOWS IN THE 60S AND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. CLOSER TO THE LAKE FRONT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPRECIABLY COOLER (70S TO LOW 80S).
BY MIDWEEK, THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
PEELING OFF A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FLATTENS THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING TREND HEADING INTO
THURSDAY, THOUGH STILL AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
VARIOUS WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES, BUT NO ONE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT AT THIS
POINT. A COLD FRONT ENTERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, SIGNALING AN
UNSETTLED END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO AROUND AND EVEN PERHAPS JUST BELOW
AVERAGE.
GAGAN
AVIATION
ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AREAS OF CIGS OF 600-1900 FEET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE WI
THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATE TNT, MORE LOW
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO SUN AM.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE POCKETS OF CIGS BELOW 1 KFT AND VSBYS TO
1/2SM FG AND MAY CONCENTRATE MORE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WI. THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL THEN BURN OFF BY LATE
SUN AM.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 958 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE LAKE, MUCH WEAKER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.7 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AREAS OF FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE,
MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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