916
FXUS63 KMKX 141425
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY LINGERING AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THIS WEEK. DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 925 CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE RAPID ERODING OF FOG/LOW STRATUS
FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS FOG HAS THE GREATEST VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS (DELLS AND
MONROE) HOWEVER MOST AIRPORTS INDICATE VISIBILITY REBOUNDING AND
AREA WEB CAMS CONFIRM THIS TREND. AS A RESULT THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WAS CANCELED EARLY.
MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR HIGHLIGHTS A NARROW, NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF WI THIS MORNING, WITH A
SHORTWAVE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVING ALMOST DUE
NORTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE BEST (DEEPEST) MOISTURE IS
LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND IT WILL BY AND LARGE STAY THERE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SUPPORTS OUR WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
(INLAND) WILL SURGE INTO THE 80S, WHILE EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE 70S. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
REACHING OR EXCEEDING THEIR CROSSOVER VALUES AND MORE FOG IS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT PATCHY AREAS OF GROUND FOG GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL.
GAGAN
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND THE 9AM TO 10AM
HOUR AS IT LIFTS AND MIXES. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO DRY, QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND, AND IN THE UPPER
70S NEAR THE LAKESHORE OWING TO LIGHT EAST WINDS OFF OF THE
LAKE.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE JET STREAM REMAINS DOMINANT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NEUTRAL TO
POSITIVE TILT, BUT MAINTAINING IT'S AMPLITUDE. CORRESPONDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC CANADA REMAINS DOMINANT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, CONTINUING TO FAVOR DRY WEATHER AND
ALLOWING FOR WEAK SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE (VEERING FROM
EAST TO SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AND LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. AWAY FROM SAID LAKE BREEZE, INLAND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW, WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGHING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MANAGING TO PRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES FOR FAR WESTERN WI, LIKELY HOLDING SHORT OF OUR
ENTIRE CWA THOUGH.
THE NEXT MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR OUR REGION WOULD BE THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK (WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS, 25-50%
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY) AS QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATES AND A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS INBOUND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. THOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
ON THURSDAY, CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO HOLD DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. LATE THIS WEEK,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES JAMES BAY CANADA, LIKELY FORCING
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION, WITH CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 925 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FOG IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
WITH LIFR VIS/CEILING QUICKLY RISING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD CONCLUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
APPROACH/EXCEED THEIR CROSSOVER VALUES. AS A RESULT ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS
LOWER TONIGHT VERSUS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON
MIX OUT A BIT. ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
GAGAN
MARINE
ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AREAS OF FOG, POSSIBLY
DENSE, MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES.
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN WATERS NORTH
OF A PORT WASHINGTON WI TO WHITEHALL MI LINE UNTIL MID SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WORST OF THE FOG IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE LAKE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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