707
FXUS63 KMKX 150215
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
PARTICULARLY IN EAST CENTRAL WI TOWARD SHEBOYGAN AND IN/AROUND
THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY REGION.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 915 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS A RESULT OF COOLER WATER ALONG THE SHORELINE DUE TO
RECENT UPWELLING, AND THE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WE CAN
EXPECT THIS TO BECOME DENSE AND ADVECT INLAND, BUT HOW FAR
INLAND IS STILL IN QUESTION.
RADIATIONAL FOG (DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND COOLING TEMPS) IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY LOW SPOTS, MARSHES, AND
RIVER VALLEYS. WE EXPECT A SIMILAR FOG TREND AS LAST NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LESSER EXTENT.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PLACES AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER ON THE QUIET SIDE, WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR/EXCEEDING
AFTERNOON DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES, PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG
CURRENT RESIDES TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON, PARTICULARLY
IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY REGION. GIVEN THE RAINFALL FROM A
FEW NIGHTS AGO, PATCHY GROUND FOG IS PLAUSIBLE AS WELL.
GAGAN
LONG TERM
ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE 12Z SUITE OF ENSEMBLES MAINTAINS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THERE ARE INCREASING
QUESTIONS AS TO THE QUALITY, STRENGTH AND EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW LOITERING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. IN FACT ARRIVAL MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE
WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY AS A FILLING (WEAKENING) OPEN WAVE. AS A
RESULT, HAVE PULLED BACK ON POPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY (NOW DRY)
AND THURSDAY (TRENDING DRY). IF THIS UPPER LOW DOES INDEED HAVE
TROUBLE ENTERING THE REGION, TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
GAGAN
AVIATION
ISSUED 915 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES APPROACH/EXCEED THEIR
CROSSOVER VALUES. ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY CAN
BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY, WITH THE
GREATER CONCERN FOR DENSE FOG WEST/NORTH OF MADISON AND ALSO IN
EAST CENTRAL WI TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. ANY FOG DISSIPATES BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND GENERALLY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE (10KT OR LESS).
GAGAN/CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY, WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES DOMINATING
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT (10KT OR LESS) EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, KEEPING WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AND USUALLY ON THE LOWER END OF THAT
RANGE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME.
GAGAN
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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