845
FXUS63 KMKX 151415
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 915 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
LAST TRACES OF FOG HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS SHEBOYGAN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS WE REMAIN IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION EAST OF
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MAY MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY,
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND IN THE MID-80S
IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 425 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE, ONCE FOG DISSIPATES, CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
THE MID 80S, WHILE EAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AMID CONTINUING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 425 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI, INCLUDING MADISON, EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
ANTICIPATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SINK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH EACH AFTERNOON, SO THEY WILL INCH
CLOSER TO SOUTHERN WI EACH DAY. WE HAVE SMALL CHANCES ALREADY ON
THURSDAY, BUT THE HIGHER CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WI ALONG A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE (ALONG A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT). CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN SOUTHWEST WI
ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE UP AGAINST DRIER EASTERLY AIR
STEMMING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY.
THE TROUGH WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WI ON
SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH DRY
AIR CAN WIN OUT. THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, BUT THIS COULD BE ANY TIME BETWEEN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THAT
TROUGH TO CROSS, SO WE SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A PRETTY CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AT LEAST WESTERN WI TO HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN WITH A RIDGE
RETURNING.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 915 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER, EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO BE FEW AS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN REMAINS WITHIN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE EAST OF A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.
HIGH CIRRUS MAY MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS FRONT.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT,
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY NEAR THE LAKESHORE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 425 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY, WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES DOMINATING
OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT (10KT OR LESS) EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, KEEPING WAVES IN
THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE, AND USUALLY ON THE LOWER END OF THAT
RANGE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT FROM TIME TO TIME.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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