088
FXUS63 KMKX 152000
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IN THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S STILL
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE MOST CONFIDENCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES)
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
CLEAR SKIES HAVE DOMINATED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARING THEIR HIGHS IN THE MID-80S INLAND AND NEAR 80 DEGREES
ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT REGIONS COOLER, IN THE MID
70S. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S INLAND AS
DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN DRIER AIR. NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER
60S.
WITH DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THIS EVENING,
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
LAKEFRONT REGIONS THAT CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES (SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES) STAND A
MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING PATCHY FOG (20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE). PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT (WHERE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGER). EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP THINGS WARMER AND
IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
GOING INTO TUESDAY, STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS MARQUETTE, SAUK,
IOWA, AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY, AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT REGION, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-80S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE REGIONS (WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ARE EXPECTED).
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY HAD DEVELOPED DURING
THE DAY WILL WANE, BRINGING AN END TO ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE
SAME AREAS AS DURING THE DAY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING THESE TO BE STRONG OR WIDESPREAD.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
OUTSIDE CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR TWO IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE HUDSON
BAY INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE, BROAD 200 MB
TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE
NEXT WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS TROUGH, DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS AS A CUTOFF
LOW, HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY SLOWING DOWN ITS PROGRESSION RUN-TO-
RUN. THIS FOLLOWS GENERAL INTUITION REGARDING CUTOFF LOWS AND
MODEL BIASES TOWARD A FASTER LOW PROGRESSION. AM COMFORTABLE
WITH LOWERED NBM POPS THURSDAY INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE.
ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS TROUGH, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING BROAD LIFT TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY, EXPECTING POTENTIALLY
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SOME NBM POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT LINGERING
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EXITS. CLOUD COVER
AND EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND RESULTANT COLDER AIR
REGIME WILL MODULATE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS AROUND 25,000 FT HAVE STARTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY IN SHEBOYGAN
AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES AND THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. ANY FOG
WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY, BUT
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EVEN BENEATH SHOWERS. SHOWERS END TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE HUDSON BAY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT,
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW AREAS OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WARM WATER AND
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCREASING AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS.
INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES IN NEARSHORE REGIONS OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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