093
FXUS63 KMKX 161522
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S STILL
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE MOST CONFIDENCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES)
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1011 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM INLAND PORTIONS OF SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY, SOUTH THROUGH WAUKESHA COUNTY. FOG WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
AFTER DAWN.
THEN, DRY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ISNT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE ORDINARY
AS GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A BIAS WITH FASTER FORWARD PROGRESSION
OF CUT OFF LOWS THAN REALITY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BE EFFECTED BY THIS SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW. SO ITS ENTIRELY
LIKELY THAT POPS WILL DECREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND ANY SHOWER
OR STORMS ACTIVITY WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE. SO
AREAS ALONG WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY RETAIN THOSE LOW CHANCES
AROUND 10-20%. LIKEWISE UNDER THE RIDGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME.
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH THERE WILL BE BROAD LIFT SLOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE
STATE. THIS BROAD LIFT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS/WAVES OF SCATTED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THIS CUT OF LOW AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE. SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN AROUND 20-30%. THIS COULD SHIFT SLIGHT IN TIME STILL
YET, SO IT BEST TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL (MID TO LOW 70S IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
HIGHS), ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES COOLER AIR SHOULD START
TO MOVE IN.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1020 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A MEANDERING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OVER QUEBEC. CALM WINDS AND LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE HUDSON BAY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT,
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW AREAS OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WARM WATER AND
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCREASING AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page