077
FXUS63 KMKX 171622
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1122 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S.
- RAIN CHANCES TREND CONTINUES TO BE LATER, BUT THERE REMAINS A
20 PERCENT CHANCES WEST OF MADISON ON THURSDAY AND HIGHER
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 423 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ANOTHER DAY OF QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES OWING TO CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH MAY ALSO BREAK DOWN
JUST ENOUGH TO ADD A STRAY SHOWER/STORM WEST OF MADISON DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 423 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE
EASTWARD HEADING INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE CUT OFF
LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE
RIDGE. A SECONDARY LOW IN THE HUDSON BAY WILL ALSO BE PULLING
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. WITH ALL OF THESE MOVING PARTS, THERE
WILL BE MORE BROAD LIFT MOVING INTO THE STATE AND A COUPLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETREATING
LOW FROM THE HUDSON BAY. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THE LOW IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH IT. WITH THE
COOLER AIR WINNING OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW FROM THE PLAINS,
THERE WONT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM THE COLD FRONT.
THIS IS LARGELY BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT
(RIDGE) AND SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN. NOW THIS COLD FRONT WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL INCREASE LIFT AND POPS. AS THE CUT OFF MOVES IN
THERE WILL ALSO BE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE
LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WAFFLE A BIT BEFORE MOVING NORTH
BACK ACROSS THE STATE AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
INCREASED LIFT FROM THE CUTOFF LOW AND SHORTWAVES AND THE
INSTABILITY RETURNING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GIVE WISCONSIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST PUSH FOR RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THEN SUBSEQUENT RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG EACH SHORTWAVE. EXACT TIMING OF EACH ROUND
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS
NOR ANY WIDESPREAD ALL DAY RAIN. LOOKING FURTHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE LEANING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN WHILE THE CAN TRIES TO KEEP ADDITIONAL TROUGHS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
REGION. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF WI.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND
BRING A POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY
THURSDAY AND BEYOND AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9
INCHES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND, STRONGER WINDS UP TO AROUND
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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