044
FXUS63 KMKX 181550
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- 60%-90% CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
- CONTINUED COOL WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK, WITH FROST POTENTIAL
SEVERAL NIGHTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN WI CONTINUE TO
ERODE LATER THIS MORNING, WITH MOST INLAND AREAS ALREADY LOOKING
CLEAR ON SATELLITE. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE
EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER DARK THIS
EVENING, WORKING WITH AN APPROACHING JET ENTRANCE AND UPPER
TROUGH TO FORCE SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN
WI) LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 10 PM CDT.
ONLY ~500 JOULES OF MUCAPE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO HREF PLOTS, WITH THE 500-750 JOULE CONTOUR
PUSHING INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN WI (HENCE THE HIGHER THUNDER
PROBABILITIES THERE). SHOWERS SHOULD EXIST BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT THANKS TO THE FORCING FOR ASCENT (STRONG PVA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH) IN THE UPPER LEVELS. CAMS RESOLVE THE POST FRONTAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING AT LOWER INTENSITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, MOVING CLEAR OF INLAND AREAS AROUND 7 AM SUNDAY, AND
CLEAR OF THE SHORELINE BY AROUND 10 AM SUNDAY, LEAVING COOL AND
BREEZY WEATHER IN IT'S WAKE.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH PRECIPITATION EAST OF
THE AREA BY MID MORNING. DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST, WHICH WILL BRING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE, WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 70S.
BIG CHANGES ARRIVE TONIGHT AS A DEEP TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD (60%-90%
POPS) SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE ECMWF ENS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF AND QUICK MOVING SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS S
WI SUN NT FOLLOWED BY SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION ON MON AHEAD OF
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES,
THEREBY MERGING WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH. CYCLOGENESIS WILL THEN
ENSUE AND TAKE MUCH OF TUE-TUE NT CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
THE DETAILS OF THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE A BIT EACH DAY,
BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (30-50%) MON NT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TUE INTO
TUE NT VIA LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. BRISK NNWLY WINDS AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL MON NT-TUE NT.
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL WED THROUGH FRI BUT WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING. WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUMS MAY BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS WARMING
BACK TO NORMAL IS FORECAST.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1050 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
LINGERING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVER FAR EASTERN / SOUTHERN WI
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO, LEAVING DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT
TO NW, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WI) LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LIGHTER
RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE LONG AFTER THE FRONT PASSES (THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT), AND COULD LEAD TO SOME REDUCED CLOUD CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN WI
WHERE WE FORECAST FUEL-ALT MVFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUNDAY (WITH 24-32 KT GUSTS FORECAST),
SUBSIDING AND BACKING SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT'S RAINFALL
LOOKS TO END AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY FOR INLAND AREAS, PERHAPS MID
TO LATE MORNING FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE SHORELINE (AROUND 10
AM CDT). DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 257 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS ACROSS IL AND NORTHERN IN TONIGHT, AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO
AROUND 29.2 INCHES AS IT LIFTS INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY
MORNING, REACHING LAKE HURON BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST GALES
SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKEN FOR
MONDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS AND
NEARSHORE ON SUNDAY.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM SUNDAY
TO 10 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM SUNDAY TO 7
PM SUNDAY.
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