726
FXUS63 KMKX 190253
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINSHOWERS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT,
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER FOR SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S).
- CONTINUED COOL WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK, WITH FROST POTENTIAL
SEVERAL NIGHTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 953 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND
FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THESE
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ARE DEVELOPING UNDER
SOME INCOMING 500 MB PVA. THIS DEEPER LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE
SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST CONTAINED TO SOUTHEASTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE MUCAPE REMAINS AROUND 250.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR STRONGER STORMS AS THERE
IS VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR ACROSS WISCONSIN. STORMS MAY BE A BIT
PULSEY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, BUT THEY ARE VERY SHALLOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD START TO BECOME MORE GUSTY OVERTIME
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING, THOUGH THE
MORE ROBUST SUPPORT AND TRIGGERING FOR SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS) ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB PVA SHOULD KICK THINGS
OFF AROUND OR AFTER 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE 12Z HREF MEAN
MUCAPE INDICATED ROUGHLY 500 TO 750 JOULES REACHING FAR
SOUTHEASTERN WI, HENCE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE CHANCE / SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST THERE. MOSTLY JUST
RAIN SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON A DELAY
BEHIND THE INITIAL NW WIND SHIFT (AFTER MIDNIGHT), BECOMING
GUSTY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH
EXPECTED. THE RAIN WRAPS UP IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING THE AFTERNOON DRY WITH CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS AND RAPIDLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER. MUCH COOLER (HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S).
WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE UNDER CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A
BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR FROST POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUR FORECAST DOES CURRENTLY CALL FOR 'AREAS OF FROST' TO FORM
IN SAID TIME WINDOW, AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS AND AS FAR EAST
AS THE KETTLE MORAINE HILLS. CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE, OUR FORECAST CURRENTLY RESOLVES TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER, MAKING FROST FORMATION
SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS:
THE BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE EXITS EAST ON MONDAY, WORKING WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS / MINNESOTA TO DRIVE STRONG
SURFACE WAA IN OUR REGION, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BOOSTING
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 60S FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT (THOUGH MODELS REMAIN DISPERSED ON THE EXACT ARRIVAL
TIME). 60-70% RAIN CHANCES MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES. WINDS VEER WEST AND INTENSIFY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
TUESDAY LOOKING GUSTY AND COOL (HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S). SOME
20-50% RAIN CHANCES LINGER IN EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL WI ON
TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS ALLOWING PRECIP TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. FAR SOUTHWESTERN WI LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY (ONLY 10-20% RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY) FURTHER FROM
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY SLIGHT (~15%) RAIN
CHANCES ON ACCOUNT OF A CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS LOW PRESSURE THAT
MAY MEANDER JUST CLOSE ENOUGH BY.
MID-WEEK FROST POTENTIAL:
THE TWO MAIN WINDOWS WE WILL BE WATCHING ARE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING LIGHT WINDS MAY PLAY A ROLE
IN RAISING/LOWERING FROST POTENTIAL ONE OR BOTH DAYS, A LOT
COULD CHANGE FROM THIS FAR OUT. FOR THE FIRST OF THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES, OUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST CURRENTLY SITS IN THE
LOW 30S, WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE LATTER.
LATE-WEEK TEMP TRENDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN:
THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALLOWS LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO
THE 60S. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEPICTS STEADY
STATE HIGH TEMPS WITH HIGHS REMAINING AROUND 50 LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 953 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BRINGING VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUDS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 4-5 KFT AND SHOULD DROP TO 2-4 KFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS OF 2-4 KFT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING, CEILINGS WILL
CLEAR SHORTLY THERE AFTER. ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE SLOWLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN HAS THE LAST OF
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THOSE SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KTS (35 MPH) EXPECTED. THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN
THEY WILL BECOME WESTERLY THEN CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ACROSS
IL AND NORTHERN IN TONIGHT, AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO AROUND 29.2
INCHES AS IT LIFTS INTO THE LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING,
REACHING LAKE HURON BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST GALES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, THEN
TURN SOUTH AND ACCELERATE TO ROUGHLY 30 KNOTS MID DAY MONDAY AS
29.5 INCH LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH WEST GALES LOOKING LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM SUNDAY
TO 10 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM SUNDAY TO 7
PM SUNDAY.
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