813
FXUS63 KMKX 190803
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN PROGRESSES EAST THIS MORNING, ENDING FOR LAKESHORE AREAS
BY LATE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AT TIMES THIS WEEK,
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR FROST. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING, CLEARING
THE MADISON AREA BY 8-9 AM, AND THE LAKESHORE BY LATE MORNING.
CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY DAYBREAK,
AND THEN RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS
COMMON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REACH THEIR MINIMUM
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME AREAS OF FROST MONDAY MORNING. IF TRENDS CONTINUE A FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
AFTER A DAY OF WAA AND BREEZY WINDS, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT,
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN FROM MODEL TO MODEL, BUT
OVERALL THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST, SO TOO WILL THE RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD,
THERE IS LARGELY DRY WEATHER WITH ONLY A FEW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN (10 TO 15% CHANCE) MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY AS A LOW
MEANDERS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI.
SHOULD THIS TRACK HOLD THE WORST CASE SCENARIO ON RAIN IS WE GET
CLIPPED BY SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. GRANTED THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY HERE SO JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING MONDAY NIGHT, COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FROST MID TO LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FROST LOOK TO BE
WEDENSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE AGAIN IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE, THE FIRST OF WHICH IS THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND HOW LIGHT THE WINDS ARE. ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HEAT IN AND COULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND OUT
OF THE FROST ZONE. BREEZY WINDS WILL LIKEWISE ASSIST IN
DETERRING FROST. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, WHICH IS WHY THE BEST FROST POTENTIAL IS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS FOR THIS PERIOD OF
CONCERN OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN,
WITH VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE RAIN.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL DEEPEN TO
29.3 INCHES AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST
GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, THEN TURN
SOUTH AND ACCELERATE TO ROUGHLY 30 KNOTS MID DAY MONDAY AS 29.5
INCH LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS LOW
WILL THEN DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH WEST GALES LOOKING LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM SUNDAY
TO 10 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ868...7 AM SUNDAY
TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
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