846
FXUS63 KMKX 200313
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PROMOTE AREAS OF FROST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO CENTRAL WI.
- HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY, BEFORE A
LONGER SHOT OF MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNS TUESDAY.
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1012 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SEEING SKIES CLEAR & WINDS BEGINNING TO TAPER THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE CLEARING SKIES &
LIGHTENING WINDS LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY 1) AWAY FROM THE
WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND 2) SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS PART OF THE REGION. HAVE
EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY INTO WAUKESHA AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING UPDATE. ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
BETWEEN 2-8 AM. BE SURE TO BRING ANY COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS
INDOORS BEFORE HEADING TO BED TONIGHT.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 251 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
WINDS WILL QUICKLY EASE TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY
SLIDES EAST OVER THE STATE. WITH THE CALMER WINDS, SUBSIDENCE,
AND REMNANT CAA AMID DRIER DEW POINTS, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TANK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST. A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW
MORNING, AND ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
WI, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SKIES
SHOULD BE SUNNY TO START, BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST, BRINGING A BAND
OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
FOLLOWING THE FRONT TUESDAY, A UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING, AND A SECONDARY SFC
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH PREVALENT NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. WHILE IT'LL BE DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, MORE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1012 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL FIELDS.
WINDS ARE TAPERING THIS EVENING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VRB WINDS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING -SHRA POTENTIAL TO ALL AERODROMES.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS POTENTIAL IN THE 00/03Z UPDATES AT MKE,
WITH PREVAILING MENTIONS FORTHCOMING AT OTHER TERMINALS IN THE
06Z FORECAST.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
NORTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH GALES DROPPING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY SUNDOWN . ANY LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT EAST OF THE MICHIGAN STATE SHORELINE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A
NARROW SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE LAKE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTH AND ACCELERATE TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIAL GALES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE'LL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST
GALES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
WIZ059-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ069-WIZ070...2 AM MONDAY
TO 8 AM MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...NOON
MONDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
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