639
FXUS63 KMKX 200753
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
253 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY TODAY.
- QUICK MOVING BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
60%-80% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
- COOLER AND BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 50-70% CHANCE FOR
RAIN TUESDAY.
- FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 253 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO
THE MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, WARMEST OVER SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER EXPECTED, AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA TO THE EAST A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THINGS COOL
AND WINDY ON TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 50, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 253 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
SYNOPSIS: STILL POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEPARTING UPPER
LOW, SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MOST SPOTS ON WEDNESDAY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS, COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THUS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR FROST (& POTENTIALLY THE FIRST
FREEZES OF THE SEASON IN SPOTS) DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. A
STACKED NORTH-SOUTH PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A MOSTLY DRY PASSAGE OF THE TWO FEATURES,
THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WRAPAROUND SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIP CHANCES PUSHING OUT OF MOST
LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY. AVAILABLE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS REGIONALLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY SNEAKING INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF INSTABILITY, MAKING
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOW. LACK OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION
WILL THUS TRANSLATE TO LIGHT RAINFALL RATES, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT/BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST
SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: ANTICIPATE A COOL STRETCH OF
WEATHER, WITH CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES DURING EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EXPECT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHEN A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MEDIUM TO HIGH
POTENTIAL (~60-80+%) FOR TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF I-94/US-18
& WEST OF I-41 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH READINGS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FROST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS, WITH THE FIRST
FREEZES OF THE SEASON OCCURRING WHERE < 32 DEGREE LOWS ARE REALIZED.
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER BY FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL COOL ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL FROST POTENTIAL IN SPOTS. CONSIDER MOVING COLD-
SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
ISSUED 253 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN INCREASE IN
SPEED, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, BUT
AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 253 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE IN MINNESOTA. SAID LOW WILL MOVE
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MIGRATES TOWARD THE
ONTARIO- QUEBEC BORDER.
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL THEN BE A LULL IN THE GALES FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST GALES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LONG DURATION GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE OPEN WATERS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON TO CAPTURE
BOTH GALE EVENTS.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
STARTING AT NOON CDT TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN THE NEARSHORE, BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
WIZ059-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ069-WIZ070 UNTIL 8 AM
MONDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...5 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...NOON
MONDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
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