566
FXUS63 KMKX 201716
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1216 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY TODAY.
- QUICK MOVING BAND OF LIGHT RAIN (80-100 PERCENT) WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
- COOLER AND BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
GRAUPEL AND/OR SMALL HAIL EXPECTED.
- FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
BREEZY SLY WINDS AND FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
996 MB LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WRN MN INTO NE MN. ITS STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THIS EVENING WITH BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AFTERWARD. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED ALOFT VIA A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND PVA.
CYCLOGENESIS WILL THEN ALIGN FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NRN LAKE
MI BY 12Z TUE THEN OCCLUDE OVER THAT REGION DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE OCCLUSION AND A
534 DM THICKNESS LOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO SRN WI FROM LATE TUE AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL OF 3-4 KFT AND SKINNY CAPE EXTENDING UP
TO THE -10C LEVEL, SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL WOULD BE
EXPECTED. GUSTY WLY WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COOL DAY.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 253 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO
THE MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, WARMEST OVER SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER EXPECTED, AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA TO THE EAST A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THINGS COOL
AND WINDY ON TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO 50, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 253 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
SYNOPSIS: STILL POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEPARTING UPPER
LOW, SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MOST SPOTS ON WEDNESDAY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS, COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THUS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR FROST (& POTENTIALLY THE FIRST
FREEZES OF THE SEASON IN SPOTS) DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. A
STACKED NORTH-SOUTH PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A MOSTLY DRY PASSAGE OF THE TWO FEATURES,
THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WRAP AROUND SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIP CHANCES PUSHING
OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY. AVAILABLE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS REGIONALLY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY SNEAKING INTO
NORTHEASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LACK OF INSTABILITY, MAKING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LOW. LACK OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL THUS TRANSLATE TO LIGHT
RAINFALL RATES, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT/BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: ANTICIPATE A COOL STRETCH OF
WEATHER, WITH CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES DURING EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EXPECT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHEN A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MEDIUM TO HIGH
POTENTIAL (~60-80+%) FOR TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF I-94/US-18
& WEST OF I-41 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH READINGS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FROST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS, WITH THE FIRST
FREEZES OF THE SEASON OCCURRING WHERE < 32 DEGREE LOWS ARE REALIZED.
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MILDER BY FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL COOL ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL FROST POTENTIAL IN SPOTS. CONSIDER MOVING COLD-
AVIATION
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
BREEZY SLY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BRISK
WLY WINDS AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH TUE. THERE WILL STILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS EARLY
THIS EVENING OVER FAR ERN WI BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL THEN PASS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER FAR ERN WI. CIGS WILL THEN CLEAR DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BUT MVFR CIGS WILL
THEN RETURN TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 253 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE IN MINNESOTA. SAID LOW WILL MOVE
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MIGRATES TOWARD THE
ONTARIO- QUEBEC BORDER.
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL THEN BE A LULL IN THE GALES FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST GALES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LONG DURATION GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE OPEN WATERS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON TO CAPTURE
BOTH GALE EVENTS.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
STARTING AT NOON CDT TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN THE NEARSHORE, BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...5 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM
WEDNESDAY.
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