727
FXUS63 KMKX 210224
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
924 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUICK MOVING BAND OF LIGHT RAIN (80-100 PERCENT) WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
GRAUPEL AND/OR SMALL HAIL EXPECTED.
- FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 924 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AS THE SFC
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE AS IT
MOVES EAST TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER TONIGHT AS
THERE IS NO CAPE OR SHEAR TO SUPPORT ANY STORMS. JUST THE
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT AND PVA ALOFT TO BRING LIFT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
BREEZY SLY WINDS AND FAIRLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF 996 MB
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM NRN MN TO LAKE SUPERIOR TNT. ITS
STRONG COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS ERN MN INTO
CENTRAL IA, WILL THEN PASS THIS EVENING WITH BRISK WLY WINDS
AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION AFTERWARD. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTED ALOFT VIA A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND PVA
FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CYCLOGENESIS WILL THEN ALIGN
FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO NRN LAKE MI BY 12Z TUE THEN OCCLUDE
OVER THAT REGION DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE OCCLUSION AND A 534 DM THICKNESS LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO SRN WI FROM LATE
TUE AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL OF
3-4 KFT AND SKINNY CAPE EXTENDING UP TO THE -10C LEVEL, SOME
SMALL HAIL AND/OR GRAUPEL WOULD BE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
WILL THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY WLY WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COOL
DAY.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SLOW MOVING OCCLUSION WILL THEN
MAINTAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS IN THE FLOW AND COOL AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WED NT. 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FROM LATE TUE NT-WED NT. NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL THEN CONTINUE POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SAT, WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STILL A THREAT TO BRING LIGHT AND BRIEF
SHOWERS. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN TAKE HOLD BY SAT-SUN AHEAD OF A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN ON SELY WINDS.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 924 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND WILL
CLEAR THE STATE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF LLWS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF
SHOWERS BE ALONG THE FRONT. AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH CEILINGS MAY FALL TO AROUND 1-3 KFT. CIGS WILL THEN
CLEAR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BUT
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN RETURN TUE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. SAID LOW WILL MOVE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
MIGRATES TOWARD THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER.
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LAKE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL THEN BE A LULL IN THE GALES FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST GALES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LONG DURATION GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON TO CAPTURE BOTH GALE EVENTS.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM
WEDNESDAY.
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