302
FXUS63 KMKX 211541
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND WINDY TODAY. SHOWERS (60-80% CHANCE) AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MIDDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH SHOWER
POTENTIAL (30-50% CHANCE) CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY.
- FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1042 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA (OBSERVED NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH) SHOULD
SKIRT JUST TO THE SOUTH IN ILLINOIS, BUT A FEW GUSTS OF 40 MPH
ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. REGARDLESS,
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN, AND WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT,
STILL EXPECTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH AN ISOLATED BOLT OF LIGHTNING AND RELATED SMALL
(LESS THAN PEA SIZED) HAIL WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING THE DAILY HIGHS WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGING IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 253 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
RAIN HAS ENDED FOR NOW, WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES OVER
THE REGION. BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
MORNING, WITH A WIDESPREAD STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPING BY
MID MORNING, AS THE NEXT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO
THIS EVENING. A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MEAGER. LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL
SUPPORT GRAUPEL WITH SOME OF THE MORE WELL-DEVELOPED SHOWERS.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION, CLOUD COVER, AND SHOWERS,
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM A FEW DEGREES THIS MORNING, BEFORE
LEVELING OFF AND THEN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S AREA-WIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS UPPER LEVEL
LIFT BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD NOT BE
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY'S ACTIVITY, AND WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO AN AREA NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MILWAUKEE TO
MONTELLO. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL, WITH UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S EXPECTED.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 253 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO
THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY THIS POINT WITH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE STATE, THERE WILL BE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING
HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
UPPER LEVEL PVA WILL STILL IN THE REGION, PARTICULARLY IN THE
EAST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN. CHANCES OF THIS WILL BE LOW (AROUND 10%), BUT UNTIL THE
CLOUDS START TO CLEAR THAT CHANCE WILL BE THERE. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COINCIDE WITH A SFC HIGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AND QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND UNDERCUT THE INCOMING RIDGE (INCREASING HEIGHTS). THIS
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS ALSO A SECOND SHORTWAVE
IN THE GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE SAME TIME. GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT ON
HOW IT WANTS TO HANDLE THESE TWO SHORTWAVES. FOR THE 1ST
SHORTWAVE OUT OF CANADA, THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST OF WITH THE EURO
BEING SLIGHTING FASTER IN TIMING. FOR THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OUT
OF THE GREAT PLAINS THE GFS GOES MUCH FURTHER NORTH OF THAN THE
CANADIAN WITH THE EURO SOME WHERE IN BETWEEN. ALL OF THIS HAS
LEAD TO LOW CHANCE POPS AROUND 20- 40%. DON'T EXPECT THIS TO BE
A WASH OUT TYPE OF WEEKEND. THE ONE BRIGHT SIDE FOR THE WEEKEND
IS SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN BRINGING A RETURN OF TEMPS IN
THE 60S.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1042 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING WINDS FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. GUSTY WINDS AND GRAUPEL WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS
NEARING 35 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA, WITH EXPECTATIONS THAT THOSE GUSTIER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(JVL/ENW). THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE, WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TO THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 253 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES ALONG THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER
WILL MOVE EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
EAST TODAY, WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THIS SAME TIME.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM
WEDNESDAY.
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