090
FXUS63 KMKX 212001
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCE) LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN INTO WEDNESDAY, TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THIS EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH EXPECTED. A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WHERE A COMBINATION OF A 925-850 MB JET AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING OF MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT JET DYNAMICS WILL EXIT LATE
TONIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE 40 MPH POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY AROUND 30-35
MPH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS
INTO ONTARIO, EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIGHTNING CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED GREATLY, WITH ONLY ~10%
CHANCE OF A BOLT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND POTENTIALLY IS ENHANCED BY WARM LAKE
MICHIGAN WATERS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCE) THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. SHOWERS WILL
END INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TAPER OFF.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, SLOWING WINDS, AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S. SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN LOOKS
TO DIP INTO THE 30 TO 33 DEGREE RANGE, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A
FREEZE. ELSEWHERE, FROST IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-30S. NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE CLOUD COVER LINGERS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AND PREVENT
FROST/FREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC ONE MORE
DAY THU. A SMALLER LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL SWING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ONTARIO, WHICH WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST WINDS BRISK OVER SOUTHEAST
WI AND ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS
THE PREVIOUS DAYS THOUGH, AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST WI, ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD CLIP THE SHORELINE
THU AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S THU NT, AND THUS
WILL LIKELY GET FROST. INLAND AREAS TOWARD CENTRAL WI HAVE A RISK
FOR A HARD FREEZE. MOST OF SOUTHERN WI IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONLY STICK AROUND FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE REBOUNDING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS FRI NT WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 32
DEGREES.
CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN WI ON
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH NORTHERN WI. THE
12Z GFS INTRODUCES A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
MARQUETTE TO SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES MIDDAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF WEAKENS THE TROUGH QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND THEREFORE KEEPS
US DRY. ENSEMBLES KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY DRY, WITH LESS THAN A 20
PERCENT CHANCE. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATER
FCST UPDATES.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MAKE IT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW THEY
HANDLE IT AFTER THIS POINT. THE GFS ABSORBS IT INTO AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE EC KEEPS IT
SEPARATE. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (15 TO
20%) IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR SRN WI ON SUNDAY, BUT ENSEMBLES
ARE SHOWING A SHIFT TOWARD MONDAY FOR THOSE CHANCES.
THAT NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER
FOR TUE-WED NEXT WEEK. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 2000 FT TO 5000 FT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO ALL LOWER TO
MVFR BY THIS EVENING, AND TO 1000-1500 FT OVERNIGHT. A FEW
POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY UNDER SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED AND A
FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2025
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR, LEADING TO CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY GALES TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM TWO RIVERS WI TO MANISTEE MI. NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SEE
LOWER WINDS AROUND 30 KT, BUT ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD.
GALES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THIS FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
EXITS INTO ONTARIO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM
WEDNESDAY.
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