963
FXUS63 KMKX 221443
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
- A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST AND POTENTIAL FREEZE IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN, WHERE ~30-60% PRECIP PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED IN THE MORNING UPDATE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING, WITH FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. BRING COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS
BEFORE HEADING TO BED TONIGHT.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 242 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AT LEAST
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS
PROBABLE THAT THE CLEARING LINE WILL ADVANCE ENOUGH FOR FROST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JANESVILLE TO
MADISON TO THE DELLS.
MORE SUN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 50S. PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 242 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS, SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN IDEAL NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WIDESPREAD
FROST ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS SOME MIDDLE 30S RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A HARD FREEZE TO MOST OF
THE AREA AND AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.
HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY, IN THE
MIDDLE 50S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT, AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER AND NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A MODEST WARMING
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH UPPER 50S SATURDAY TO AROUND 60
DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA. SMALL CHANCES (AROUND 20 PERCENT)
MAY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT MAY END UP DRY IN LATER
FORECASTS.
THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEK, AS ENSEMBLES TRY TO
BRING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES VARY WIDELY DURING
THIS PERIOD, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AT THE NBM VALUES FOR NOW.
ENSEMBLES DO HAVE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING
ALONG THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED -SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW, PARTICULARLY IN EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF
ACTIVITY, HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT MKE, UES, AND SBM. WILL INSERT TEMPO OR PREVAILING
-SHRA GROUPS AS RADAR & OBS TRENDS DICTATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TIED TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT
IN IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT MSN AND
JVL, AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EASTERN SITES.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 242 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY ENDING
THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN
WATERS.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069...2
AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 AM
THURSDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page