205
FXUS63 KMKX 221959 CCA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS (~20-50% CHANCES) CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
- AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF A WISCONSIN DELLS - MADISON
- JANESVILLE LINE TONIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- GRADUAL WARM UP TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH RAIN
CHANCES (~20-50%) RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES AN AREA OF
UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE HURON VICINITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIED TO WRAPAROUND PVA ON THE BACK SIDE OF SAID LOW,
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIFT
REMAINS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS, WITH
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A SCATTERED OF PRECIP OVER PRIMARILY EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AT THE CURRENT HOUR. EXPECT THESE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST WITH ITS PARENT
UPPER LOW TONIGHT. CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT,
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR WEST OF MADISON BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
DISSIPATING CLOUDS, COMBINED WITH WEAKENING SURFACE WINDS, WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ALONG & WEST OF SAUK-DANE-ROCK COUNTY LINE BETWEEN 2-9 AM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
THE CHILLIEST LOWS OF THE SEASON TO-DATE AREAWIDE. WIDESPREAD LOWS
AT/BELOW FREEZING ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH FREEZE WARNINGS LIKELY IN
COMING FORECASTS. BE SURE TO BRING COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS
BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT: WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHTENING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY FROM WISCONSIN DELLS, MADISON,
JANESVILLE, AND POINTS WEST. TEMPS SHOULD FALL FAR ENOUGH FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED THE FROST
ADVISORY AS-IS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROST-FREE FURTHER EAST. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS CLOSELY, AS A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE WISCONSIN VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD DROP TO THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS REGARDING CLEARING, ANY SUCH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED AND BRIEF ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR FREEZE WARNINGS.
IF, HOWEVER, THE CLEARING TRENDS FASTER, MORE PROLONGED/WIDESPREAD
FREEZING CONDITIONS WOULD MATERIALIZE OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.
WILL THUS BE WATCHING SKY COVER TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES IF NECESSARY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
IN VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED, AND WILL BE ADDRESSED
FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF TONIGHT'S FROST ADVISORY. BE SURE TO
BRING COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS INSIDE BEFORE GOING TO BED THURSDAY
NIGHT.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER
HIGH TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS
TOWARD THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES SUPPORTING A GRADUAL WARM
UP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY IN DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AT SOME POINT
DURING THE TIME FRAME. HOW QUICKLY PRECIP RETURNS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE OZARKS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY-MONDAY, IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE THUS EXPECTED
AT POINTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WON'T BE
RAINING FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: OVERNIGHT & AFTERNOON FORECASTS FROM
THE NBM ARE INITIALIZING ~20-50% PRECIP PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF THIS TIME FRAME, THOUGH IT'S UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL BE
RAINING UNINTERRUPTED THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THIS TIME FRAME.
INITIALIZATION OF CONTINUOUS PRECIP PROBABILITIES IS MORE SO TIED TO
HIGH AMOUNTS OF MODELING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING,
PLACEMENT, AND EVOLUTION OF FORCING MECHANISMS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS, RAIN
CHANCES WILL FOCUS NEAR A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, AND NEAR A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH BUILDING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS ANTICIPATE THAT HIGHER
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL CONTRACT INTO ONE OR TWO NARROWER TIME
FRAMES AS THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER & FEATURE
TIMING/PLACEMENT TRENDS CLARIFY IN MODEL GUIDANCE. COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS, WITH MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD NEGLIGIBLE STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ALONG THE
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT -DZ AND SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW, PARTICULARLY IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN. GIVEN EXPECTED SPOTTY NATURE OF ACTIVITY, HAVE
ADDRESSED THIS POTENTIAL WITH TEMPO -DZRA GROUPS AT SBM, UES, MKE,
AND ENW, WITH AN ADDITIONAL PROB30 GROUP CONTINUING INTO EARLY
EVENING AT SBM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST
FORECASTS IF NECESSARY. TIED TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER
AIR WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT AT MSN AND
JVL, AND BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT EASTERN SITES.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
1000 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS. GALES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
CDT. EXTENSIONS TO THE WARNING ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THROUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN
BREEZY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS BROAD 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. SAID WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT POINTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
GALES IN COMING FORECASTS.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ACTIVITY,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT.
EXTENSIONS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREN'T EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ULTIMATELY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING
GUSTS, COMBINED WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS, WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069...2
AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 AM
THURSDAY.
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