061
FXUS63 KMKX 231955
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WI EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- GRADUAL WARM UP TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BACK
TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES (~30-40%)
MAINLY RETURN MON NT-WED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE OCCLUSION OVER QUEBEC WILL FINALLY SHIFT FARTHER AWAY
ACROSS ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND FOR TNT-FRI WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES OF 120M TNT THEN ANOTHER 60M ON FRI. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD LATE TNT WHEN A NARROW
RIBBON OF VORTICITY MAXIMUMS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WRN
ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS EWD. PWATS WILL
FALL BELOW 0.25 INCHES BY 12Z FRI. AT THE SFC, THE NORTH TO
SOUTH RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE TO WRN WI BY 12Z FRI
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE STATE ON FRI. THUS EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNT WITH SOME CLOUDS HANGING ON IN THE EVENING
OVER ERN WI. THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN AN
ALREADY COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO 26-30F WELL
INLAND AND LOWER 30S OVER FAR ERN WI. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR FRI
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL STILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FRI NT SO
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH FROST IS FORECAST.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF NRN MN WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL WI ON SAT, ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF TRACKS IT SOUTH DOWN
THE MS RIVER AND INTO NRN IL. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT
MODELS OTHER THAN THE GFS ARE MOSTLY DRY. THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE
DEEPER WITH THE MOISTURE AND ATTEMPTS TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A CLOUDY FORECAST AND DRY AT THIS
TIME.
ELY WINDS WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR SRN USA. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MAY THEN DIG AND
AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL USA FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE ERN USA BUT THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMPLITUDE, LOCATION, AND TIMING OF THIS
SYNOPTIC FEATURE. RAIN CHANCES OF 30-40 PERCENT ARE FORECAST MON
NT-WED. TEMPS WILL SLIGHTLY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON THEN
DROP BACK DOWN TO NORMAL.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TNT-FRI EVE. BKN035-040 STRATOCUMULUS TO CLEAR
THIS EVENING. JUST A FEW035-040 FAIR WX CUMULUS FOR FRI
AFTERNOON.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY
PROGRESS INTO NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY OVER THE LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL THEN CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER
QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS BROAD 29.9 INCH LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, RESULTING IN BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FREEZE WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...2 AM FRIDAY
TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
LM...NONE.
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