238
FXUS63 KMKX 241438 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
938 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARM UP TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES (30 TO 40 PERCENT)
MAINLY RETURN MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 938 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AS
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOME LOW
CLOUDS FINALLY CLEARED OUT IN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA, AND
TEMPERATURES THERE THAT REMAINED MILDER SHOULD DROP QUICKLY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY NOT DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S WOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
THE DAY SHIFT WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR FURTHER FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SHOULD SUPPORT SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT.
ONE CAVEAT IS THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, SO LOWS MAY BE TOO COLD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT, SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
STRENGTHENING. A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, THEN ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OUTSIDE OF THE GFS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
MOISTENING OF THE AIR COLUMN IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA DRY. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS
DRY, THINK IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR NOW, BLENDED WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND ADDED 20
PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MAINLY WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THIS COULD END UP BEING A DRY
FORECAST OR JUST SOME SPRINKLES. HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DRY, EVEN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO LIFT A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
NORTHWARD TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. TRENDS WITH THIS
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW HAVE BEEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGES
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HIGH, SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY TIMEFRAME
(ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE).
TRENDS ARE TOWARD LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW AND A LOW PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LOW LOOKS TO KICK
OFF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE WYOMING ROCKIES ON
MONDAY, WHICH WOULD THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD TOWARD WISCONSIN
AND BRING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30 TO 40 PERCENT)
GENERALLY FROM MONDAY EVENING ONWARD.
IN ADDITION, EXPECT GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S). AS HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BEGINS TO ERODE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST AND WINDS
TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
(HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S).
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 938 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO TONIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
WAVES MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW, THOUGH COULD SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS IF THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE ENOUGH.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES OVER THE REGION WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, BECOMING EAST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS THE HIGH
REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND STRENGTHENS TO 30.5
INCHES.
THESE ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page