641
FXUS63 KMKX 241910
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
210 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARM UP TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MODELS ARE
TRENDING DRIER FOR EARLY TO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 210 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
MOST PLACES.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE WAVE, BUT THE LOW LEVELS MAY
STRUGGLE TO SATURATE ENOUGH FOR MUCH RAIN TO HIT THE GROUND.
THUS KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 20-30% RANGE FOR NOW. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 GIVEN
A BETTER SIGNAL FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWERED SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE RAIN.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 210 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PARK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH
A HIGH THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY MID-WEEK. THE LATEST
ROUND OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
BY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY TO
MID-WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A FORECAST THAT IS TRENDING DRIER FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS REFLECTIVE IN THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE PROBS AS WELL, WITH THE 60% + CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE/WED. OTHER THAN HIGH TEMPS PUSHING OR REACHING
60 ON SUNDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 210 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW, THOUGH COULD SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR WITH THE
SHOWERS IF THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE ENOUGH.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 210 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.3 INCHES CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE STRENGTHENING A BIT
TO 30.4 INCHES. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES
EASTWARD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHILE STRENGTHENING A LITTLE MORE TO AROUND 30.6 INCHES.
MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST, CAUSING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS A
PERIOD OF BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY HIT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page