039
FXUS63 KMKX 311653
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1153 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES (~30-60%) INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO 50-80% OVER SE WI ON SATURDAY. 20-30%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAKE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY.
- NEXT RAIN CHANCES (~35-60%) ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MI INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SATURDAY.
GALES MAY THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR LAKE MI.
- FOLLOWING A COOL WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1152 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MN WILL MOVE INTO SRN MN BY THIS
EVENING THEN ERN IA BY 12Z SAT. MEANWHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE VIA NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER SRN WI. A WEST TO
EAST SFC TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY PASS SWD FROM LATE TNT INTO
EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.
THE CURRENT NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WRN
WI IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PVA OVERSPREADS
SRN WI. FCST SOUNDINGS DO DEVELOP SKINNY CAPE UP TO 700 MB FOR
MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL THEN OCCUR ALONG THE SWD MOVING WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
LAKE VIA LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFS OF 16C WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR ERN WI ON
SAT. THIS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
TROUGH WITHIN NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER
MUCH OF THE DAY FOR FAR SE WI AND POSSIBLE CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER LOW TEMPS FOR TNT VIA
CLOUDS AND THE WARMTH WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH SO NO RAIN/SNOW MIX
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR SAT GIVEN
CLOUDS, PCPN, AND A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
REST OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: IR SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 39, WHERE SUBSIDENCE FROM A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE HAS TAKEN HOLD. UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, GOES
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NORTH DAKOTA-MINNESOTA BORDER, WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACING AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT FROM THE MINNESOTA-IOWA BORDER NORTH TO
DULUTH. EACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, ULTIMATELY CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
TIMING, IN ADDITION TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, COULD SUPPORT
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW MIX TO THE WEST OF MADISON LATE TONIGHT,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS NOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN ANY MIXED
PRECIP. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTED SURFACE FRONT
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN CHILLIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO
TODAY.
REST OF OVERNIGHT: EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EAST AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE, A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO
DECOUPLE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES, ALLOWING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
DROP QUICKLY. MINOR VISIBILITY DROPS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS. WILL THUS BE WATCHING FOR ANY FURTHER DROPS THROUGH
DAYBREAK, THOUGH INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TONIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. CONFIRMED IN UPSTREAM 00Z
SOUNDINGS, FORECAST GUIDANCE DEPICTS VERY COLD TEMPERATURES NEAR &
WITHIN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT TIMING AND
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, THERMAL PROFILES
COULD THUS SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT-RAIN SNOW MIX BETWEEN ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK. POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF MADISON, WHERE THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK AND THE
COLUMN WILL BE THE COLDEST. ACCUMULATIONS NOR IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN ANY RAIN-SNOW MIX THAT MATERIALIZES.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER IL SATURDAY EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WI
DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS.
THE GFS IS SHOWING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF, BUT THE EC
IS TRENDING STRONGER. THE EC ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING STRONGER WHILE
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER THE MIDWEST AFTER THE QUICK-
HITTING SYSTEM EXITS. SRN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THAT
HIGH, SO EXPECT WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO AFFECT OUR CLOUDS, WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN
SUBTLE WAYS FROM TUE-THU.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1152 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVER SRN WI WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT BKN050-080 WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF SRN WI
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE INTO TNT. MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF CIGS BELOW 1 KFT WILL
THEN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL WI
INTO SRN WI THROUGH SAT MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER OVER
MUCH OF SRN WI FOR THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SE WI ON SAT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
990 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OF 1012 MB MOVES INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTH
AND 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING TO THE
ENTIRETY OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN
COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR TWO, THOUGH WIDESPREAD
WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WHEN 990 MB LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL GALE WARNINGS IN
COMING FORECASTS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
DAY MONDAY, RESULTING IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND
ADDITIONAL GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN NEARSHORE ZONES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. WHILE THE BEST POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN,
AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FROM MILWAUKEE
AND POINTS SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HEADLINES BECOMING
NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS. GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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