730
FXUS63 KMKX 311959
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES (~30-60%) INCREASE TOWARD EVENING AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO 50-80% OVER SE WI ON SATURDAY. 20-30%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAKE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY.
- NEXT RAIN CHANCES (~30-60%) ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MI INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SATURDAY.
GALES MAY THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR NRN LAKE
MI.
- FOLLOWING A COOL WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN MN WILL TRACK TO ERN IA BY 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE VIA NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OVER SRN WI. A WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY
PASS SWD FROM LATE TNT INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE PVA OVERSPREADS SRN WI. FCST SOUNDINGS DO
DEVELOP SKINNY CAPE UP TO 700 MB FOR MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR ALONG THE
SWD MOVING WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE VIA LAKE TO 850 MB
TEMP DIFFS OF 16C WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR ERN WI ON SAT. THIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH WITHIN NELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY FOR FAR SE
WI AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WENT WITH
SLIGHTLY MILDER LOW TEMPS FOR TNT VIA CLOUDS AND THE WARMTH
WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH SO NO RAIN/SNOW MIX FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR SAT GIVEN CLOUDS, PCPN, AND A
RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS. SFC RIDGING AND CLEARING SKIES THEN
TAKES HOLD SAT NT WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME DIVERGING LATE. A DEEP CYCLONE WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO OR HUDSON BAY FOR SUN-SUN NT. MODEST SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SRN WI ON SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION, BUT THICK HIGH
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THE HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD STILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 50S. THE SRN EXTENT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE SUN NT INTO MON. RAIN CHANCES OF
30-60% ARE FORECAST SUN NT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS OVER EAST
CENTRAL WI.
QUASI-ZONAL WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FOR LATE TUE INTO WED. ONLY 20-30% CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A DEEPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION. 30-40%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ON THE MILD SIDE.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
BKN035-080 CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SRN WI. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO
TNT. MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF CIGS BELOW 1 KFT WILL THEN DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL WI INTO SRN WI
THROUGH SAT MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER OVER MUCH OF SRN
WI FOR THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SE WI ON SAT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
28.8 INCH LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO TOMORROW, WHILE ITS WESTWARD
EXTENDING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LAST INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR TWO,
THOUGH WIDESPREAD WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL THEN SHIFT INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WHEN 29.2 INCH LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ADVANCES TOWARD HUDSON BAY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL GALE
WATCHES IN COMING FORECASTS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY MONDAY, RESULTING IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT AND ADDITIONAL GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS 30.2 INCH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS.
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR FOR BREEZY WSWLY WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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