370
FXUS63 KMKX 010318 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1018 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT (30-50%), WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO 50-80% OVER SE WI ON SATURDAY. 20%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAKE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY.
- NEXT RAIN CHANCES (~30-60%) ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MI INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SATURDAY.
GALES MAY THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.
- FOLLOWING A COOL WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1013 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING AROUND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. THE FORCING
MECHANISM FOR THE LIGHT SHOWERS IS MAINLY WEAK MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ADVECTION, BUT WITH A LITTLE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN IL.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BANDS OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AND IS APPROACHING GREEN BAY. THAT FRONT WITH
MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY DOWN THE LAKE TONIGHT. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AT MILWAUKEE
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM, AND POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS
WITH LIFT FROM THAT UPPER LOW. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A
POSSIBLE LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE DOWN THE
LAKESHORE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TAKES ON THE
LOOK OF A LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND AND/OR A MESOVORTEX. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE VIA LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFS UP TO
16C WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR ERN WI. GIVEN A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH OF
AROUND 10KFT, THIS ENVIRONMENT ALSO MARGINALLY SUPPORTS
WATERSPOUTS.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN MN WILL TRACK TO ERN IA BY 12Z SAT.
MEANWHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE VIA NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OVER SRN WI. A WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY
PASS SWD FROM LATE TNT INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE PVA OVERSPREADS SRN WI. FCST SOUNDINGS DO
DEVELOP SKINNY CAPE UP TO 700 MB FOR MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL THEN OCCUR ALONG THE
SWD MOVING WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE VIA LAKE TO 850 MB
TEMP DIFFS OF 16C WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR ERN WI ON SAT. THIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH WITHIN NELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW. THE SHOWERS COULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY FOR FAR SE
WI AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WENT WITH
SLIGHTLY MILDER LOW TEMPS FOR TNT VIA CLOUDS AND THE WARMTH
WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH SO NO RAIN/SNOW MIX FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR SAT GIVEN CLOUDS, PCPN, AND A
RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS. SFC RIDGING AND CLEARING SKIES THEN
TAKES HOLD SAT NT WITH TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME DIVERGING LATE. A DEEP CYCLONE WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO OR HUDSON BAY FOR SUN-SUN NT. MODEST SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SRN WI ON SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION, BUT THICK HIGH
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THE HEATING. TEMPS SHOULD STILL RETURN TO THE
LOWER 50S. THE SRN EXTENT OF A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE SUN NT INTO MON. RAIN CHANCES OF
30-60% ARE FORECAST SUN NT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS OVER EAST
CENTRAL WI.
QUASI-ZONAL WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FOR LATE TUE INTO WED. ONLY 20-30% CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A DEEPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION. 30-40%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ON THE MILD SIDE.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1013 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE PIVOTING AROUND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WI AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN IL. THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKESHORE AND THROUGH CENTRAL
WI OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE AT MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM SATURDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
INTENSE AS IT REACHES MILWAUKEE AND THEN VERY SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. TALLEST CLOUDS SHOULD BE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE DAY.
MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS TONIGHT. AS SHOWERS START COMING OFF THE LAKE SATURDAY
MORNING, THE CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE BELOW 2 KFT.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
28.8 INCH LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO TOMORROW, WHILE ITS WESTWARD
EXTENDING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LAST INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT OR TWO,
THOUGH WIDESPREAD WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL THEN SHIFT INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND QUICKLY INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WHEN 29.2 INCH LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ADVANCES TOWARD HUDSON BAY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL GALE
WATCHES IN COMING FORECASTS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY MONDAY, RESULTING IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT AND ADDITIONAL GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS 30.2 INCH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS.
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR FOR BREEZY WSWLY WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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