810
FXUS63 KMKX 010836
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED DRIZZLE AND RAIN (~25-50% CHANCES) CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE, WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (~60-80% CHANCES) NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE.
- A FEW WATERSPOUTS MAY BE VISIBLE FROM THE LAKESHORE TODAY,
THOUGH NONE WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAND.
- RAIN CHANCES (~25-50%) RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS. BEST
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF I-94 & US-18.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LA CROSSE VICINITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT/WIND SHIFT ALONG AN APPROXIMATE WISCONSIN RAPIDS - OSHKOSH -
MANITOWOC AXIS. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. LIFT FROM THE TWO FEATURES WILL ENCOURAGE SCATTERED RAIN
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ADDED LAKE
INFLUENCES SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER POTENTIAL NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE ARRIVING DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S FORECAST. THE QUICKLY FALLING SURFACE TEMPS WILL COMBINE
WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO SUPPORT FOG POTENTIAL INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
REST OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY: EXPECT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SHOWN IN RECENT RADAR TRENDS, ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN
LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND AN ABSENCE OF DEEPER LIFT. EXPECT
THAT THIS WILL CHANGE THROUGH AND FOLLOWING SUNRISE AS LIFT
INCREASES AND THE COLUMN SATURATES. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY GREATER
COVERAGE OF RAIN NEAR THE LAKESHORE, WHERE LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES
WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT FROM THE PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE FRONT. WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS
TODAY, WITH SOME POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE VISIBLE
FROM LAND. NO HAZARDS TO LAND WILL BE POSED BY ANY WATERSPOUTS.
ANTICIPATE LIGHT (< 0.1") RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TO RAIN/DRIZZLE, THOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE 0.25-0.5" RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP LAKESIDE.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN MN. THE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WI EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND BRING A CHANCE (35 TO 55%) OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THIS WEAKENING AREA OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD INTERACT WITH A STALLED LOW
LEVEL FRONT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN/SOUTHERN WI, BUT THE
LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY. THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH MAKES IT WAY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
LARGELY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WI RIVER VALLEY AND
SBM. EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA, WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER.
GIVEN EXPECTATIONS, WILL THUS LARGELY BE MAINTAINING THE 06Z
FORECAST IN THE 09Z UPDATE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS TRENDS
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR AT MSN AND JVL, IN ADDITION TO THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. SHOULD
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE TREND AWAY FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST, FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE IN THE 12Z UPDATE. -SHRA
AND -DZ WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE
FRONT CROSS THE AREA, WITH POTENTIAL BEING ACCOUNTED FOR AT ALL
FIELDS. FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL BE
MONITORING FOR FG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
972 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LOW, AND IS SLOWLY
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS ARE THUS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERLY FURTHER NORTH.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY, WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
WATERSPOUTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS, PARTICULARLY FROM PREDAWN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED, WITH SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS BEING ISSUED IF NECESSARY. WINDS, ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WHEN
990 MB LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ONTARIO FROM THE
CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE HUDSON BAY. GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A GALE
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT BETWEEN 3 PM CST SUNDAY AND 6 AM CST MONDAY
GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
REMAINING GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW GALES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AREAS OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WATERSPOUTS AREN'T ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN COMING FORECASTS. WINDS
WILL TAPER LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN NEARSHORE ZONES
TODAY. A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ONTARIO. A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT
MONDAY, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS
WILL TAPER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY.
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