738
FXUS63 KMKX 021555
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
955 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO TONIGHT AS
~25-45% RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE (MAINLY AFTER 10 PM). BEST RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF I-94 & US-18.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES (~30-50%) RETURNING TO ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 955 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION,
THE MAIN EDITS PLANNED TO BE MADE INCLUDE INCREASING THE CURRENT
(NEXT 3 HOURS) CLOUD COVER FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND
MONITORING THE ARRIVAL OF THE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION TOWARD MID DAY.
FOR OUR MARINE HEADLINES, THE ARRIVAL OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
(22 KNOT) WIND GUSTS APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
THE FIRST FEW HOURS MAY JUST BARELY REACH THIS CRITERIA, SOLIDLY
EXCEEDING IT BY SUNSET LATER TODAY. THE GALE WARNING TIMEFRAME
IS ON TRACK AS WELL, WITH THE LONGEST-LASTING AND FASTEST PERIOD
OF WIND GUSTS POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN, TOPPING OUT AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS EVENING THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT CST BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK DOWN AND VEER DUE
WESTERLY. THE END TIME FOR THE GALE WARNING (AROUND 6 AM CST
MONDAY) IS ALSO ON TRACK FOR NOW.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 228 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: OBSERVATIONS PLACE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING, WITH ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE HAVING
ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE DEW POINT IN MANY LOCATIONS, WITH AREAS
OF FOG BEING REPORTED THROUGH 2 AM CST. FOG HAS BECOME DENSE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-94 AND US-18 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN,
WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVED EARLIER LAST EVENING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 8 AM THIS
MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING FALLEN BELOW FREEZING, ISOLATED
SLICK SPOTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN AREAS OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK,
PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. FOG WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO BURN
OFF AFTER SUNRISE. CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ALBERTA-MANITOBA
BORDER, AN UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT. RESPONDING TO THE PASSING UPPER WAVE, WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
SUPPORTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION, AND WILL
CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH WEAK POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
REST OF OVERNIGHT: WILL BE MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT & EVOLUTION
THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS FAR, THE MOST WIDESPREAD & DENSE FOG HAS
FOCUSED OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, WHERE
SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE SLIGHTLY GREATER DEW POINTS. HAVE THUS
COVERED THIS PORTION OF THE CWA WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
DAYBREAK, BUT WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING OBS FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSIONS.
AREAS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE EXISTING ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSEST, AS DEW POINTS REMAIN A TOUCH HIGHER IN THESE SPOTS
AND THIS IS WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING INTO. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING, A FEW SLICK SPOTS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN AREAS OF FOG, PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. SHOULD
FOG DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE ADVISORY MAY BE
CANCELED PRIOR TO ITS 8 AM EXPIRATION. ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME IF
TAKING TO THE ROADS EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA
FOLLOWING DISTANCE IF ENCOUNTERING AREAS OF FOG.
TONIGHT: RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE
FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
TO THE NORTH OF I-94 AND US-18, WHERE DRY AIR IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT & THE
ENCROACHING SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN
LIGHT, WITH TOTALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 228 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR THE MODERATING HIGH TEMPERATURE TREND TO
CONTINUE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH AN ATTENDANT AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE WEDNESDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE/SURFACE LOW
PASSAGE, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS TO/BELOW FREEZING ARE
ANTICIPATED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A SECOND
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
WEDNESDAY: THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY GIVEN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COLUMN. THE LONE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH, WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT BETTER SATURATION.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED NBM PRECIP PROBABILITIES DURING THIS PORTION OF
THE PERIOD, WHICH PAINT SLIGHT CHANCES (~10-15%) FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WARM THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL RAIN
IN ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY: THE SECOND OF TWO DISTURBANCES WILL
CROSS THE AREA, WITH BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AT THIS
TIME.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 955 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ARC
OF BKN 3,500 FT CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL WI IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE, BUT ALSO SCATTER OUT. SCT TO BKN
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS CROSS THROUGH AS WELL. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KNOTS.
~25-45% RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 10 PM, WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH WINDS ALOFT OUTPACING THE
SURFACE FLOW, SOME BORDERLINE-CRITERIA LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY, WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 228 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OPEN WATERS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE A
TOUCH BREEZIER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE, WHERE SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN LOWER. CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ALBERTA, 990 MB LOW
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. THE GREATEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
BETWEEN 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON AND 6 AM CST MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE GALES. NEITHER THUNDERSTORMS NOR
WATERSPOUTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT THE WEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL TAPER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE OPEN WATERS. 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW PASSES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN NEARSHORE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 1 PM CST TODAY AND 10 AM
CST MONDAY FROM WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR, AND BETWEEN 1 PM CST
TODAY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WIND POINT. WINDS WILL
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE
MICHIGAN. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN ELEVATED WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...3 PM SUNDAY
TO 6 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645...1 PM SUNDAY TO 6
PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ646...1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM MONDAY.
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