014
FXUS63 KMKX 022116
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ~20-45% RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER 9 PM). BEST
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE TOWARDS EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL WI.
DRY CONDITIONS BY PRE-DAWN MONDAY.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS TURN WEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN (25 TO
35 MPH GUSTS) INTO MONDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
- 60% CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES DECLINE INTO THE WEEKEND
BEHIND IT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
DEEP LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT, DRIVING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WORKING WITH AN APPROACHING 500MB
TROUGH, THIS FRONT WILL BRING 20-45% PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION
TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 9 PM CST. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE TOWARDS EAST-
CENTRAL WI, AND WOULD AMOUNT IN ONLY LIGHT RAIN TOTALS IF
APPLICABLE (AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 EXPECTED, WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND BRUTE FORCE WAA PREVENTING TEMPS FROM FALLING
FURTHER.
RAIN CHANCES CEASE BEFORE DAWN MONDAY, LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND
BREEZY WEST WINDS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 25
TO 30 MPH GUSTS FOR MONDAY, DECREASING AFTER DARK. SUNNY SKIES
ALLOW FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY WARM (ABOVE AVERAGE) CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION, WORKING
WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM NEAR SOUTH DAKOTA TO DRIVE LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH WINDS. ROUGHLY 10% PRECIP CHANCES INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM,
THOUGH MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY AND QUIET WITHIN IT'S WARM
SECTOR.
NEXT NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING (60%) AS A MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS / MINNESOTA AND CONTINUES EASTWARD.
WITH A GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS, THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ALONG IT'S COLD FRONT,
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LANDING IN THE BALLPARK OF A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN (OR 1 INCH FOR THE HIGHER PERCENTILE MEMBERS).
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED, SENDING DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
~3,000 FT SCT/BKN CUMULUS / STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WERE MORE
PERSISTENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TODAY, AND HAVE LEAD TO SOME
PERIODIC MVFR IN SOUTHERN / SOUTHEASTERN WI TODAY. SATELLITE
SIGNATURES INDICATE THESE HAVE BEGUN TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE, LEAVING MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE BKN VFR CEILINGS IN
PLACE. DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY INTO TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. 20-45% CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT (AND AN ACCOMPANYING
UPPER AIR TROUGH), MAINLY AFTER 9 PM CST TONIGHT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 40 TO 50 KNOT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE 2,000 FT AGL LEVEL OVERNIGHT,
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO
ALL TAFS).
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS VEER WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING (BEHIND THE FRONT)
AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH 25 KT GUSTS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST MONDAY.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
29.2 INCH LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 KNOTS. AS SUCH,
ALL NORTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN UNDER A GALE WARNING THROUGH 6 AM
CST MONDAY. LOW-END GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN, BUT WITH A LATER ARRIVAL. AS SUCH, THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS IS UNDER A GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING THROUGH 6 AM CST MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, DRYING OUT BY AROUND DAWN MONDAY. THOUGH
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE RETREATS EAST- NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
HUDSON BAY CANADA, WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY, AND A FEW WESTERLY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AN EXTENSION OF THE EXISTING GALE WARNING OR
A BRAND NEW GALE WARNING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR THIS
PERIOD, THOUGH OUR BEST GUESS IS FOR GUSTS TO HOLD JUST SHY OF
GALE CRITERIA.
WEST WINDS SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODEST WEST WINDS, TURNING
SOUTH OVER TIME.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM SUNDAY
TO 6 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 PM
MONDAY.
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