423
FXUS63 KMKX 032100
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND ~7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY,
ROUGHLY 60 DEGREES.
- RAIN CHANCES (~60-80%) RETURNING TO ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- BECOMING EVEN COOLER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP CHANCES (~40-60%) ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME
LIGHT SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY:
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME VERY HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECLINE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES, WITH NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S EXPECTED.
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGH AND MID
ALTITUDE CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA (PERIODS OF
MOSTLY SUNNY / MOSTLY CLOUDY). WARM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 60 DEGREES, AND A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE. WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE SO STRONG THAT SOME VIRGA (RAIN THAT
DOESN'T REACH THE GROUND) CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCES FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%).
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH A DEEPENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA / THE DAKOTAS
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FALL
IN NORTHERN WI, UPPER MI, AND NORTHERN LOWER MI, LEAVING OUR REGION
MOSTLY DRY IN THE WARM SECTOR (10% PRECIP CHANCES). THE TWO PRESSURE
SYSTEMS THEN WORK TOGETHER TO FORCE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG CAA AND GUSTY NW WINDS
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING 25 TO 30 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT AS
WITH ANY NOVEMBER CAA EVENT, WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
WINDS OVER-PERFORM. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES DESPITE THE FRONT, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PASSES JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, CALM
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 30 FOR
AN OVERNIGHT LOW. CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF THURSDAY, WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
50S AGAIN.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (60-80% CHANCES) AS A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT, VEERING NORTHWEST.
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY (DEPENDS ON
THE EXACT ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT), BUT AFTER THAT WE BEGIN A COOLING
TREND THAT CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPECIFICALLY, WE'RE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 40S THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 30S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPS WOULD THEN FALL WELL INTO
THE 20S. TO MAKE THINGS EVEN MORE INTERESTING, A CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS WEEKEND, THEN PASSES EITHER
OVERHEAD OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION (SOUTHERN WI) SATURDAY PM
THROUGH SUNDAY, DELIVERING 40-60% PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS 6-7
DAYS IN THE FUTURE, SO PREDICTABILITY IS INCREDIBLY LOW, BUT
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK THAT THIS SYSTEM TAKES, WE COULD EVEN
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. WITH A NORTHERN TRACK, IT WOULD LIKELY BE
RAIN INSTEAD. ROUGHLY HALF OF THE ECMWF-ENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALLOWED AT LEAST A TRACE OF SNOW TO FALL AT SOME POINT THIS
WEEKEND / EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 300 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SUNNY AND VFR THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, STARTING WITH HIGH ALTITUDES (15,000 FT
OR HIGHER) THEN MID ALTITUDES INTO TUESDAY (5,000 FT OR
HIGHER). HENCE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
ONGOING GUSTY WEST WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING,
DECOUPLING AND BECOMING NEARLY CALM LATE TONIGHT. A LIGHTER
SOUTH BREEZE IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OPEN WATERS, WITH WESTERLY GALES TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE
OVERNIGHT, TURNING SOUTH THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AS 30.3 INCH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM (FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE) AROUND 29.7 INCHES
CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY (25 KT)
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF IT'S
ARRIVAL (TUESDAY NIGHT), WITH SLOWER / VARIABLE WINDS OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD AND
DEEPENS. WEDNESDAY'S WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AROUND 30 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, BUT THESE COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME GALES.
NORTHWEST WINDS DECELERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST AND A MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY, PEAKING LATE THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY
THEN LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS A DAY LATER.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 UNTIL 9 PM
MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
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