044
FXUS63 KMKX 050419
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1019 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN (55-75% CHANCE) WILL LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- BECOMING EVEN COOLER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP CHANCES (50-70%) ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1019 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED IN ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG SOME MID LEVEL WAA AND
ALONG THE LLJ HAVE STARTED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS AREA
OF RAIN SHOULD EXPAND A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD IN TO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES TO GET CLIPPED BY ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED BELOW 10%. THE BETTER LIFT AND SUPPORT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
IT LOOKED LIKE SUNSHINE WAS A SURE BET FOR THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PREVAILED AND PRODUCED MORE
CLOUDS THAN ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT, THE TEMPERATURES ONLY GOT
INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S (NOT QUITE 60) FOR MOST AREAS AND WINDS
REMAINED NON-GUSTY. HOWEVER, IN SOUTHWEST WI AS THE CLOUDS
CLEARED OUT, GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH DEVELOPED, AND TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 60S.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HAVE A DEVELOPING RESULTANT SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS
ACROSS CENTRAL WI TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW, THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET (LLJ) AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI. THE
BETTER CHANCE (UP TO 60%) FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI
AND THE U.P., BUT LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY CLIP FOND DU LAC
AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES AS THE LLJ (AND ASSOCIATED LIFT) RAMPS UP
THIS EVENING.
AS THE LOW EXITS TOWARD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN WI. MIXING UP TO 3000 FT, WHICH IS NOT THAT DEEP,
WILL STILL TAP INTO FAIRLY STRONG WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN RIGHT BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW FOR CALM WINDS AND A COOL
NIGHT WED NT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AS OUR NEXT RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. YET AGAIN, WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TIME,
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ALL ALONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AREA
FROM SOUTHERN IL THROUGH NORTHERN WI. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
(AROUND 0.10 INCH), AND THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
EVERYONE GETTING SOME RAIN AS THERE WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE
LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE AT TIMES. BASICALLY, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
THERE WILL BE A SPECIFIC TIME PERIOD WHERE THE ENTIRE COLUMN IS
SATURATED.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLIDE
INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER WITH
THIS SYSTEM (COMPARED TO THE ONE TOMORROW), BUT THE AIR WILL BE
COLDER BEHIND IT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING,
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS WITH AN EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT CLOUDS COULD FILL IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM, SO THAT WOULD LIMIT OUR COOLING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING DUE TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH.
THIS IS A CLASSIC TYPE SYSTEM THAT BRINGS A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH
OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ITS PATH
WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGEST. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
LOW WILL WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH BETWEEN MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, SO BE READY FOR FORECAST CHANGES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE DRAWING COLD AIR ALOFT (-2 TO -9C) INTO ITS BACK SIDE
(NORTHWEST) WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.
HIGHER RATES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RAPID COOLING FROM THE TOP
DOWN, SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. IT JUST MIGHT
BE IN NORTHERN IL RATHER THAN SOUTHERN WI, SO WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIP, EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE, AND RAIN NEAR THE LAKE. ONSHORE WINDS OFF
THE 55 DEGREE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP US ALL RAIN THERE. EXPECT
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH FLURRIES.
ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP US MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE
SOLIDLY AROUND 20 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1019 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
LLWS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT,ROUGHLY 2 AM,WITH
45 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE COLUMN (2 KFT). THERE WILL BE SOME INITIAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS DIFFER FROM THE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. SFC WINDS WILL BACK TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LLJ MOVES IN. SPEED SHEAR
IS BY FAR THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SFC AND
STRONGER ALOFT. THE LLWS WILL END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT THE SFC. WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS WE HEAD
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING LIGHT AND
WESTERLY.
OTHERWISE LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAR NORTHERN SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC COULD
GET THE ONLY INSTANT OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3 KFT. THESE MVFR
CEILING SHOULD LARGELY BE CONTAINED TO THE AREAS THAT ARE
GETTING LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. SINCE THIS COULD
LARGELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH CONFIDENCE ON ANY MVFR CEILINGS
IS LOW.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 244 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT,
THE MIXING SHOULD NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF UP TO 45 KT, SO NOT EXPECTING GALES AT THE LAKE
SURFACE.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOURS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND SOUTHERN OPEN LAKE AREAS.
NO CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT RUNS FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY GALES FOR THE OPEN WATERS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ENSUE
BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 PM
WEDNESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page