592
FXUS63 KMKX 052104
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (60-90% CHANCE) WILL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES (~40-70%) ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE. MINOR & SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
- FIRST WINTER-LIKE AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 304 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AS WELL
UNDER THE HIGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED THU EVENING/NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COLDER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES, DECREASING WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN A TAD ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 304 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH NO
BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTED TROUGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CRACKING
60 MANY PLACES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID-40S SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, REACHING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR THIS LOW TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH A
FEW OF THE MORE IMPACTFUL FACTORS TOWARDS ANY SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ONE IS THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH, WITH
A MODERATE SPREAD IN THESE AMONG THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP ALONG THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING AND LOCALIZED
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE,
MAINTAINED A RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SAT EVENING/NIGHT.
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM TO CHANGE GIVEN
IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT AND THE FACT THAT IT WON'T TAKE MUCH
OF A NORTH OR SOUTH WOBBLE IN THE LOW TRACK TO IMPACT WHERE THE
SNOWFALL ENDS UP. ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WOULD BE MAINLY
ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR A LITTLE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON PAVED SURFACES GIVEN HIGH
ENOUGH SNOWFALL RATES, BUT MELTING WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ONCE THE
RATES DECREASE GIVEN THE MILD GROUND TEMPS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S SUN/MON. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
LOWER TO MID 30S SUNDAY, WITH A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TOWARDS MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS BACK NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 304 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN EASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE LOW.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 304 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY EASE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.3 INCHES PASSES BY JUST TO THE
SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES EASTWARD, INCREASING THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A ROUND OF GALES DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A GALE
WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS. THE LOW OF 29.3 INCHES
WILL THEN PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEHIND THE LOW
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MORE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE ROUNDS OF GALE FORCE WINDS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 9 PM
WEDNESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 PM THURSDAY TO 6
AM FRIDAY.
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