791
FXUS63 KMKX 061548
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
948 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (40-80% CHANCE) WILL PUSH
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES
(20-30%) FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, FOR STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES (ABOUT 50 TO 80 PERCENT) ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MINOR AND
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES ARE
POSSIBLE.
- FIRST WINTER-LIKE AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 949 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE TIMING OF GUSTIER
WINDS. IF THESE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS, MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP WITH FORECASTED
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WILL BE MONITORING
TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS, BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS. BY THIS POINT, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
PLACED OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, PUTTING THE MAIN CORE OF
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (60-80 PERCENT) OVER THAT
REGION.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION NOW WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER CLOUDS BUILDING IN OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING, AS THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS MOISTEN UP WITH STRONG LLJ AND WAA. THE SIGNALS FOR
PVA IN THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE MODEST, BUT THE FOCUS
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO BE IN LARGE PART DRIVEN BY MIDLEVEL
WAA/LLJ.
MODELS HAVE LARGELY COME IN LINE ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. THE
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS
CONTINUED WITH MODELS SUGGESTIVE OF DRY AIR POTENTIALLY HOLDING
OFF PRECIP IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. THEN THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR RIGHT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WHILE SOME
SHOWERY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA, MODELS
DEFINITELY SHOW LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL (30-50%).
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME LOOKS TO BE THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS
MOISTURE AND FORCING INCREASE WITH THE LLJ MOVING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THUS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA CONTINUE TO SEE
MUCH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES (50-80%, BEST CHANCES IN THE FAR
EAST). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BECAUSE MOISTURE DEPTH IS STILL
NOT PROFOUND IN ANY WAY THAT ITS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT
WITH QPF VERY LIKELY REMAINING WELL UNDER 0.25IN FOR MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HIGHEST RAINFALL WILL VERY LIKELY BE SEEN ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH OUT
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES OUT TOWARD THE FAR
EASTER GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKEND OF THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY
WITH SOME TROWAL LIKE EFFECTS AT 700MB WITH SOME MOISTURE AS
WELL AS THE UPPER TROUGH BRING PVA (WITH MOISTURE). FORCING IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE ISN'T DEEP BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
THERE, WITH CAMS HINTING AT IT AS WELL, TO PUT SOME ATTENTION
TOWARD IT. OTHERWISE EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
LOW FRIDAY.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING FRIDAY NIGHT, AS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS LINGER WITHIN PASSING 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED CVA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME NORTH EARLY SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MAINLY MIDDLE 40S
ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI
SATURDAY, THEN INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH A
SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A BAND OF 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE THAT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WOULD BE IN THE LAYER
OF THE BEST MOISTURE. THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO
VARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION
TIMING AND TYPES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY RAIN SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE LOW TRACK AND HAS MORE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA, VERSUS THE ECMWF/GFS WHICH ARE A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEPS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE
MORE LIKE THE ECMWF/GFS WITH THE LOW TRACK, THOUGH THE EPS HAS A
SOMEWHAT DEEPER SURFACE LOW THAN THE WEAKER GEFS/CMC. THE PATH OF
THE 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE WILL BE KEY FOR ANY
FOCUSED PRECIPITATION/SNOW.
FOR NOW, MAY CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHER POPS (40 TO 60 PERCENT)
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA,
THOUGH THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE THE
WET, SLUSHY VARIETY AND WOULD MAINLY STICK TO THE COOLER GRASSY
SURFACES, WITH ROADS MAINLY WET. AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WOULD ALSO BE
MILDER AND MAY BE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER, HEAVIER RATES WITHIN THE FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE BAND MAY
KEEP BRING SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ONTO ROADS. IT IS STILL EARLY
TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS GIVEN THE LOW TRACK UNCERTAINTY, SO KEEP UP
WITH THE FORECAST. IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL BRING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SUNDAY, AS A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S FOR SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS MAY BE IN THE TEENS EACH NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500
MB HEIGHT TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A FLAT RIDGE MAY THEN PUSH EAST
TOWARD AND INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. A GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN MAY SET UP TUESDAY INTO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
VALUES.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 949 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
INTO LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
PRIMARILY FROM JVL TO SBM EASTWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERY ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING TO
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 20 TO 25 KT FROM
WEST TO EAST MID-AFTERNOON TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHIFTING TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY. THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 340 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OUT AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A ROUND OF GALES
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND CARRIES THROUGH 0Z SATURDAY.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY BEHIND THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MORE
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL GALES BECOMING
MORE LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT VARIOUS TIMES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 PM THURSDAY
TO 6 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM
THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY.
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