586
FXUS63 KMKX 170329
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
929 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BAND OF RAIN/SNOW MIX, CHANGING TO SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS,
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WORKWEEK. RAIN IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 929 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH
VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TEENS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S
BY SUNRISE. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES, WITH
SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
MONDAY.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 217 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO QUICKLY FALL THROUGH THE 30S THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY WILL BE DRY, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A RELATIVELY NARROW AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY
EVENING, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
SUPPORTED BY AN ARC OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, AS WELL
AS A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
ABOUT 850 MB AND 600 MB. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE NEUTRAL
INSTABILITY WITHIN A LARGE LAYER AS WELL. ALL OF THESE FACTORS
WILL SUPPORT NARROW BANDS OF MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THESE BANDS REMAINS IN QUESTION, AND THIS IS THE
GREATEST SOURCE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE, A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE
AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS, BUT ONCE FORCING/RATES INCREASE, LOOK
FOR RAIN TO MOSTLY CHANGE TO VERY WET SNOW, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW
FREEZING FROM ABOUT 10KFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SNOW WILL BE MOST
FAVORED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3-4 AM, WITH WARM ADVECTION
EVENTUALLY EATING AWAY AT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. POCKETS OF RAIN/SNOW
MIX WILL PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY, BEFORE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
ENDING.
GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND AIR TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING, ROAD/TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO AREAS OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. WITHIN THESE BANDS OF HEAVIER RATES,
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES, AND SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MELT ON
TUESDAY.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 217 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, WHILE ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES (30-50%)
FOR RAIN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED TO
BE AROUND AVERAGE (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, LOWS IN THE
30S) INTO THE WEEKEND.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 929 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY, WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CLOUD DECKS UNDERNEATH DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT, LOWERING VISIBILITIES. MEANWHILE, EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 217 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES PUSHES IN FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS IL FOR TUESDAY AND WILL BRING EAST- SOUTHEAST
WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO
MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH TREKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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